Bitcoin’s price rose to a high of $2,950 yesterday, up some $600 in just one day, to then somewhat stabilize at the current price of around $2,700.
The currency went on a bull run around mid-day London time after it became very likely segwit was to activate through the segwit2x agreement.
The upgrade has now locked-in, with activation and enforcement expected in late August, but some uncertainty remains as miners could back-out before it actually activates.
Moreover, uncertainty regarding August 1st remains as it appears some big blockers are planning to fork off to Bitcoin Cash through a new client called BitcoinABC.
That client currently has around 100 nodes just days after release, while Bitcoin Classic and Bitcoin Unlimited have both said they will launch a client compatible with BitcoinABC, which may bring the total node count to around 1,000.
It will be supported by ViaBTC, which is to launch a Bitcoin Cash mining pool as well as list it for trading on their exchange according to a statement they made.
So the Bitcoin Cash (BCC) coin may have a market, which means bitcoin’s price might go through some volatility around the first week of August.
Coinbase has stated they will not support it and won’t even give their clients their BCC, while Xapo, a bitcoin wallet and debit card, has stated they will support only the longest chain with the highest difficulty, but will allow their customers to withdraw any forkcoin.
So Bitcoin Cash will very likely start off as a minority coin, but it remains to be seen how it will progress from there.
It may attract at least some support from big blockers, but the coin so far has been largely ignored, which may mean most will be taken by surprise once they find out they now have both bitcoins and bitcoin cash.
So they’ll probably try and figure out what the latter is, with some liking it, some not, leading to a potential trading frenzy, not much different than the ETH and ETC split last year.
Miners will probably switch between them dependent on profitability, although it may be the case one of them tries to attack it. In which scenario, they would bring even more attention to BCC and galvanize big blockers towards supporting it.
But there may be many other different moves, depending on the initial response of the market to BCC in its first few weeks, as big block miners might ditch the segwit chain where they have to share fees with second layer protocols and may go with Bitcoin Cash where they keep all the fees.
Major businesses will probably want only one bitcoin to not confuse their new customers, but they’ll be left with little option if their current customers give their non-chosen forkcoin significant value.
That all probably translates to the free market will decide, the ultimate 51%. But, as inertia may play a role, they may give it lower value, not least because it will start-off lacking much infrastructure.
However, no one quite knows. Support for bigger blocks in bitcoin is very strong, so they may think of getting some Bitcoin Cash just in case it catches on.