Just weeks after a China crackdown and old bankers bashing, bitcoin appears to have fully recovered with the currency close to its all time high of around $5,000.
A level it hasn’t been able to cross since first reached this year, but it remains to be seen whether that will change in the coming days and weeks.
Not least because trading volumes have risen to a respectable $2 billion for bitcoin, with trading volumes up across the board today, standing at a global $4.6 billion.
Interestingly, this seemingly V shaped recovery appears to have less to do with external adoption in its latest leg up and more to do with an internal reshuffling of sorts between digital currencies.
That’s because the global market cap has stayed at around the same level, suggesting no external fiat is coming in, while most other digital currencies were down yesterday as traders seemingly moved to bitcoin.
That’s slightly changed today, but the main reason for an apparent jump to bitcoin, which increased its market share by 4% to 52% yesterday, is likely “free money.”
Bitcoin is to upgrade on or around November 18th if the mining situation remains unchanged. It appears the market is expecting that to lead to two currencies, BTC and whatever ends up being the minority chain with whatever label.
The last time this happened was with Bitcoin Cash on August 1st which created a $10 billion market cap seemingly out of nothing.
But whether that will repeat remains to be seen due to numerous differences. Bitcoin Cash was an intentional chain-split with little initial miners support.
Segwit2x intends to be an upgrade, with no chain-split, currently finding almost unanimous miners support. If that remains the case, then 1x supporters might concede and change the narrative.
Or they might split to a minority coin with changed proof of work which objectively in the circumstances would probably be a conceding of the bitcoin name, at least for the biggest and regulated exchanges.
That would make it a three way race between bitcoin, Bitcoin Gold, and ethereum. Undoubtedly, if it so develops, there would be quite a bit of fireworks, including potentially the temporary opportunity to mine a bitcoin of sorts with just your laptop.
But, it is unclear whether they would actually split to a minority coin if it became obvious that it would so be a minority. Just as, with 4 more weeks to go and plenty of time for developments, it is unclear whether 2x would be the majority coin.
Gambling traders, however, are quite clearly not waiting for clarity. They are betting on “free money,” one way or another. Whether that bet will pay off, only November can say.