One of bitcoin’s biggest exchange, currently handling some $33 million in trading volumes, has joined Coinbase and Gemini in stating they are to follow the longest chain. BTCC says:
“After the fork, we will consider the version of bitcoin that has the most proof-of-work behind it as bitcoin (BTC).”
In the meantime, they have launched a futures market, with the exchange so introducing “two chain split coins: 1MB is equivalent to the post-fork one-megabyte base blocksize coin, and 2MB is equivalent to the post-fork two-megabyte base blocksize coin.”
We are still waiting for Bitstamp and Kraken to make their announcement on the hardfork, but there appears to be a general consensus among exchanges that the longest chain with most proof of work is to be labeled as bitcoin with the BTC ticker.
If facts remain as they currently are, then that longest chain will most likely be segwit2x as currently some 92% of miners are showing support for it.
If that translates to 92% mining segwit2x, then the minority chain would most probably be nonoperational as it is unlikely it can survive with just 7% of the hashrate without protocol level modifications.
And once such modifications are made, they are trading security for the chain to survive, therefore price may correspondingly reflect the far lower security in a lower value.
All of which may mean bitcoin might actually upgrade this November, with its capacity doubling instantly. But it’s unclear what the roadmap would be thereafter.
Presumably, the network would take the approach of scaling both on-chain and off-chain through second layers, with capacity remaining above demand.
That may mean the settlement network would have been rejected by the ecosystem, with confirmation times potentially turning to normal, zero confirmations coming back, and fees becoming competitive once again.
But whether any of that will actually come to pass and in what form, remains to be seen in just about two weeks.