Luke- Jr, a Bitcoin Core developer and a Blockstream employee, made it very clear today there are no plans to increase bitcoin’s blocksize for many more years.
Replying to an individual who said: “But the lightning network whitepaper literally says that blocksize will need to be increased,” Luke-Jr stated:
“Maybe in a decade or two. And that’s only if no further improvements are made.”
So even by 2030 bitcoin might still be operating at 1MB for every ten minutes, a level lower than floppy disks could handle in the 70s.
That’s because to increase bitcoin’s blocksize requires a hardfork and for a hardfork literally every single bitcoiner has to agree according to a number of Bitcoin Core developers.
Since Luke-Jr clearly doesn’t agree, then there is no consensus. Not that any Bitcoin Core developer is even suggesting any such increase.
Gregory Maxwell, the CTO of Blockstream, a for profit company that hires many Bitcoin Core developers, was celebrating the increase in fees, suggesting the current situation is actually desirable.
Any return to peer-to-peer electronic cash, therefore, might be quite some way off for bitcoin, if ever. With all eyes on the Lightning Network, which is no where near ready, and even when it is, will take many months, if not years, to be adopted.
A far less complex upgrade by comparison, segregated witnesses (segwit), still has barely any usage after some six months since activation.
So Luke-Jr’s estimate perhaps is not that far off. Perhaps in 2030 the Lightning Network will be adopted and then the blocksize can be increased.
Until then, bitcoin can continue being useless for commerce, or really much of anything except for a game of musical chairs.
Or as they call it digital gold, which like analogue gold is difficult to move and very expensive, plus not really accepted by any merchants, acting as just a place for the rich to park their money during difficult times.