Good morning America. It’s a very red January today with pretty much everything down around -20%, again. Halved, much of it.
Panic is clearly in the air. You all saw last night bitcoin briefly fall below $10,000. That was a bit too much, so it bounced, but only by $1,000. Very week, so it now has returned back to around $10,000.
Will it hold? Maybe. But if it does it might not be because of bitcoin, which has dragged everything down. Bitcoin Cash, for example, has fallen from a high of $5,000 to now $1,600. Too cheap or still too expensive? Who is to know.
But their chart looks terrible. Not as bad as ETH’s chart though. The currency is making that classic shape:
We’re perhaps at capitulation, although it might be fear. Of that there is plenty, but there is something more than fear in the air. Perhaps even despair.
Everyone is metaphorically crying. But having seen previous cycles we wouldn’t really say they are desperate yet, generally speaking.
That’s just opinion, of course, and perhaps they have reached despair, especially the newer ones who haven’t seen previous cycles. Yet with the sentiment now seemingly changed, there might be more to go, or not, we’ll see.
There is a correlation between the opening of CME futures around 16th of December and bitcoin’s price going down.
On the day of the opening itself, there was a sell-off which continued until the bankers went off for Christmas.
Price then rose, but now they’re back so price is falling again.
Correlation, of course, doesn’t mean causation, but does suggest there might be some sort of relationship. Why? Well, perhaps because they’re bankers and might be getting orders to short. Or not, who knows.
Everyone Relax! The Crypto dip was caused by Mike Bell of JP Morgan claiming Governments could ban cryptocurrencies. Well … how? This is the same company that called BTC a fraud. It's a bank FFS. They are rightfully terrified of what we are doing. But it can't be stopped.
— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) January 16, 2018
That’s John McAfee trying to keep morals up and just in case the above tweet doesn’t show for whatever reason, he says:
“Everyone Relax! The Crypto dip was caused by Mike Bell of JP Morgan claiming Governments could ban cryptocurrencies. Well … how? This is the same company that called BTC a fraud. It’s a bank FFS. They are rightfully terrified of what we are doing. But it can’t be stopped.”
We think McAfee is attributing far too much influence to an old banker. They’ve been warning about crypto since it was pennies, but the public has paid no heed because the public knows these very bankers took trillions from them.
If we’ve learned anything from the past two years is that the public pays no attention to the elites and even likes to stick up their two fingers to them because the elite has bankrupted countries and sent our nations into deep debt. So Mike Bell saying something probably has no influence.
It’s just a cycle. There was a crazy bull run to stupendous highs. A bear run was necessarily to follow. Nothing goes up in a straight line forever. The question is how low will it go, will it then turn upwards, and if it does how high will it rise.
Of course no one knows the answer for sure, but little has changed as far as fundamentals are concerned. Which is why those who have seen some of these cycles say they don’t care about the price.
The strategy has always been to invest an amount you consider in effect as good as thrown into the fire. An amount you don’t care about at all. Then forget about it for 2-3 five or maybe ten years until you eventually see whether it’s at 0 or at infinity.
Because unless you’re a professional trader, trying to time the markets is a zero sum game. Which means you will probably lose because others are much better at it.
Which is why in ethereum the focus is on the technology and in Bitcoin Cash the focus is on creating an economy that runs on BCH, with price a secondary consideration in the short term and for some not a consideration at all, because as we are seeing it does tend to go up and down.
That’s the table chat for the day and do enjoy the show because if nothing else it is quite a spectacle and what might today seem dim might tomorrow seem very bright indeed.