The bears have ruled for far too long, the bulls might come and play along. Or at least that seems to be the sentiment in bitcoin trading fora where bulls are viciously downvoted, and where there’s a smell of bear fear.
We might of course be very wrong, but bears might have become a bit too exuberant, dancing and partying all winter. Now bitcoin gives some interesting candles:
For the last two weeks, bulls have come back fairly strongly, which might show some bear weakness, but that of course would depend on what happens next.
The last 1d and 3d candles tell the same story. Bears have met resistance and bulls are getting slightly angry.
They have been fighting for a few days now and the result can best be seen in ethereum, where it is very much a straight line:
A sideways doesn’t say anything more than the market doesn’t know what to do, but after so much red, seeing a rainbow might be a relief to some bulls.
It could well be that bulls are just trying to gain some confidence, or it could well be that bears are just trying to load up on ammo, but this dance, for the first time in bitcoin’s history, does not have a real cause.
The first time bitcoin crashed badly was in 2011, after MT Gox was hacked. That gave rise to the bitcoin is dead meme because it did truly nearly die.
Confidence was greatly lost as the then brand new invention could not be relied to be fully safe, but nothing is perfect, so it roared in March 2013.
It rose to a high of $266, which at the time all through was a “bubble.” A DDoS of MT Gox sent trading down for a bit, and bears on parade as all panicked. It is probably here when most millennials first heard about bitcoin.
The infrastructure was immature, centralized in one exchange, more exchanges were needed, growing pains, silly problems the market thought so it roared in November 2013 when the bubble then was $1,000.
Our best friend MT Gox decided to ruin the party once more and go into bankruptcy. Many lost plenty. Well, so they thought. But with MT Gox gone, who will come?
Some thought perhaps the scalability matter, but that has not been the case. So, surprisingly, no one came.
That makes this crash of some 70% very unique for bitcoin as it is the very first caused by nothing more than subjective sentiment, based on no real reason but the fact that it had risen too much.
The infrastructure has now seemingly so matured that what we consider a miracle has been enjoyed since 2016. For there has been no black swan event.
That must instill some trust, although of course the future can never be foreseen. But it may well be the worst is behind us.
The wider ecosystem now is flourishing in many ways. There are lapps and there are dapps and although there is still some bickering, scalability has been conceptually solved.
So we’re entering a new stage as we near the tenth anniversary of bitcoin’s invention. The baby can now walk, it can even talk, it can even think. It will be an adult soon.
Well, a rebellious teenager, with dreams and hopes, ambitions and aims of improving the world. Taking us in a journey with it as we learn of all things.
Long may it live. Long may science rule us all. And long may we enjoy this checkmate with no blackswan.