Ethereum’s price has made a new low since December, down to $249.93 before slightly recovering amid endless selling in the past eight months.
The currency is now down 82% since its all time high, with volumes slightly up to $2 billion. Its market cap is at a yearly low of $27 billion.
Recent events begun ahead of misplaced speculations on the bitcoin ETF. That led to some taking a bet on bitcoin in a front-running attempt ahead of an anticipated price rise due to the speculations.
The effect for eth, as far as traders go, was concerns that bitcoin would appreciate more. That turned sentiment, with some very much in a panic mode.
When one ETF was rejected and another was delayed, eth came to bear the brunt of it, although bitcoin is down too.
That butterfly then led to what now feels like a tsunami, with eth falling down below $300 yesterday, then crashing down to $250 before slightly recovering to $265.
The question in everyone’s mind is whether eth now has any more room to go down. In absolute terms the answer is yes, but then the question becomes, as far as probabilities are concerned, how much more down.
Some might complicate this by looking at bitcoin, but that might just cosmetically change the question while retaining the substance to at what point do bitcoin traders start exchanging their crypto for eth in anticipation of eth recovering first and perhaps most.
In the absence of a crystal ball, the only aid for a floor (which as a disclaimer obviously might not be a floor at all), is bitcoin in 2015 because eth’s price so far has many similarities with how bitcoin’s price unfolded back then.
The current bitcoin price might be irrelevant because no one needs to buy bitcoin to buy eth, but bitcoin’s 87% fall in 2015 could provide reasonable ground for probabilities estimations.
That might suggest eth’s price could briefly fall to $200, with probabilities becoming unlikely for it to fall any lower.
It might, however, not fall any longer and might sideway here, or it might even rise. Yet as much as one might think they know bear markets, it is utterly curious how one completely forgets how they feel.
This has been brutal, especially the past few days, with the months of selling now taking their toll. On the other hand, while eth might have previously seemed expensive, it does now kind of feel cheap.
It might, of course, feel even cheaper depending on how price unfolds, but at these levels we might have reached the stage where the dominant narrative, at least for eth, becomes once again the “don’t care about the price.”