The biggest disparity between ethereum longs and shorts has been seen on August 19th when 75% were betting ethereum’s price will rise (long), while just 25% thought it would fall (short).
That disparity is bigger than even during the peak in November-December when longs were slightly lower at 74%, and bigger than during April when longs were at 70%.
Both in November and April price went on to rise significantly, but so far it has been stable at $280-$300 with little dips and bounces.
That gap has closed a bit recently with longs falling slightly while shorts rise a bit, but it remains substantial at the time of writing.
There are some 273,000 eth currently going long, worth some $77 million. While about half of it, ◊132,000, worth $37 million, are going short.
A big jump in shorts has been seen in the past few days from an all-time low of ◊81,000 ($22 million) to now nearly double at ◊132,000.
That $17 million worth of eth sold in the past few days just by shorters has brought eth’s price down from $320 on August 18th, to a recent low of $270 today before a slight recovery to $280.
Longs, on the other hand, haven’t really moved much, falling by just ◊10,000 in the past three days from around ◊283,000.
That makes it just a 3% fall in longs, compared to a 40% rise in shorts, with the percentage between the two now standing at 67% long while 32% are short, around the same levels as in November.
All this data seems to be based only on Bitfinex’s longs and shorts as graphed by Datamish and further shown on Tradingview.
It is unclear, thus, what margin traders are doing on other exchanges, such as OKEx. While for BitMex, they would probably be distorted as far as eth is concerned as their CEO, Arthur Hayes, appears to allow his own biases to affect how the futures exchange works, showing a considerable level of amateurism.
The above data, however, might be a general indication of market sentiment, with bulls on eth seemingly refusing to give ground while bears appear to jump at the slightest upwards movement such as the recent rise to $320.