David Furlonger of Gartner has peaked into the future and has seen a global transformation thanks to the code based invention of ethereum’s smart contracts.
Currently, Furlonger says, we’re at the very early stages of blockchain implementation, with products “built on top of existing systems to reduce cost and friction in private, proprietary activities. They have only limited distribution capabilities to a small number of nodes either within or between enterprises.”
Unsurprisingly, he isn’t very impressed. “They don’t want to give up centralized control,” Furlonger said. If his crystal ball is right, however, they might have no choice because things start getting very exciting beginning around 2020.
That’s when we start seeing blockchain complete offerings, with start-ups and perhaps established companies implementing smart contracts that “deliver the full value proposition of blockchain including decentralization and tokenization.”
It’s not until 2025 however when things really take off and a completely new world begins to take shape which Furlonger describes as:
“Smart contracts will have real autonomy and advanced technologies will enable exchanges and transactions that aren’t currently possible. This is when we’ll start to see Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAO) and microtransactions performed by machines.”
“This is not just a technology, this is a societal change,” Furlonger said. Which is presumably around the time we start getting flying cars and robot shoppers obeying the fridge’s orders.
“Today’s business and technology may be unable to optimally make use of the capabilities of blockchain technologies,” Furlonger says, before succinctly summarizing the new world:
“The programmable economy is a natively ‘smart’ economic system that supports and/or manages the production and consumption of goods and services, enabling diverse scenarios of exchange of value (monetary and nonmonetary).”
He advises to not over promise. “Be careful about promising anything to the business and show them the reality of the current situation,” Furlonger says.
Presumably because there’s plenty that blockchains can do without needing to overpromise things they perhaps can’t do.
One such thing is of course to give the above flying car some money because soon enough it might be zooming around the world on its own, delivering our packages or whatever else like a nice little busy bee flying above.