Bitcoin Cash is up 25% in anticipation of “free” coins as this space now may see the third significant chain-split in as many years.
There’s a lot of talk on the network aspects, potential 51% attacks and all that nonsense. We don’t buy it. The split will probably go smoothly as far as technical aspects are concerned, and if it doesn’t, it’s just code so they’ll probably quickly fix it.
Likewise Craig Wright, Calvin Ayre and whoever else will probably take their mining gear to BSV rather than spend a second burning money on any 51% nonsense.
So for this article we’ll focus on what everyone will probably focus on. The potential price action between BCH, BSV and maybe other coins.
The flippers, you know the ones init for the tech, have apparently already begun moving into position, buying BCH for the free BSV to participate in what might be a trading frenzy.
In the first big split, ETC gaining 50% of ETH’s then price for a very brief period. Likewise BCH reached 50% of BTC’s then price. That’s presumably because both ethereans and bitcoiners sold the minor coin to the ground, but the minor coin and the then unfolding events had the attention of everyone, so plenty flippers gambled.
That’s the past and as we know the past doesn’t predict the future. Knowing what happened, the rational action might be to hold off insta selling until maybe 40%-50%. That’s very difficult because the minor coin so far has come with a feeling of disgust among main coiners. The expectation that it will go to zero at any point is difficult to resist. Just as is the unknown of how much real support BSV has.
We have not seen chaos at the network level during chain-split trading frenzy. Maybe you can say BCH’s start wasn’t really so robust, but the market by now probably realizes that any network turbulences are just temporary matters as this is all code, so if there is an extra comma, you remove it and all is good again. The same may also apply even if there is a 51% attack, which would be completely stupid.
Where price is concerned, flippers have already begun their strategy with some speculators clearly moving to BCH recently for “free” BSV.
They obviously don’t care about… well anything really except when to dump BSV. Now Ayre has been mining BCH for some time, so he might turn some of that into BSV. Meaning a non-zero price is probable.
On the other hand, Bitmain has a million BCH, meaning they will have a million BSV. Making it a complex game of chess.
Price is obviously the primary indicator. If it moves down for BCH, then Ayre is probably selling. If it moves up for BSV, then he’s probably buying. If BSV moves down, then Bitmain is probably selling. They might send that to BCH, so price there might move up.
Speed this up by 1,000x and stretch it over perhaps three days and we might have a nice movie script. Reality, obviously, might be much more entertaining than any fiction we can imagine, so try and calculate that too and you flippers should be all set.
Now amid all this speculation, we can’t resist the biggest speculation. After the BTC split, bitcoin and the entire crypto space had a bull run. The reason is logical, or we can make it so.
As all these flippers make all this “free” money, the party kids are obviously not going to park them into dirty fiat. They’d be on natural “cocaine” wanting for more “highs,” so they might make their way to “proper” coins.
That could be a spark, with it stretching over some months. Then there’s the eth “halvening” sometime in January. BCH’s next halvening is probably sometime next year. Then BTC’s halvening in 2020. ETH by that point would have had halving squared with Proof of Stake and would hopefully be ready for sharding.
Meaning it is perhaps time we earn a ridicule badge by suggesting the worst is perhaps over. Hopefully we can eventually say well done to the holders. It has been a tough year, but that is crypto. Hopefully it has been all worth it. [Insert disclaimer of the opposite of everything we said might happen.]
If this does spark a bull-run, then make sure to pretend it is “all” thanks to Mr Wright and as you all have leet photoshop skills, make sure to meme it.
The clown might at least entertain after all. Welcome to crypto boys and girls. Make sure to check your hedges, stop losses, and make very, very sure to whine like a baby if it turns out there is no trading frenzy.