Vin Armani, a long time bitcoiner and BCH supporter who founded Cointext, says Calvin Ayre and Craig Wright plan to take over BCH through a 51% attack and then do the same for all other cryptos, including bitcoin.
Armani says he does not believe their stated intention to 51% attack is a bluff. We will transcribe in full. Armani so stating that on the 15th of November there will be a BCH and BSV chain-split, then:
“Transactions valid on both networks, basically any transaction valid before November 15th, will be mined into both chains.
While mustering hash-power to protect their chain from attack, Coingeek and nChain, using mining rigs configured to mine the opposing chain – running the ABC rule-set – will launch a sustained 51% attack. Most likely mining empty blocks and doing blockchain reorganization.
I wager Craig Wright even has some potent attacks planned that haven’t been thought of before. The goal of these attacks is to leave the ABC chain in a constant state of disarray, such that exchanges and applications – such as wallets – have no confidence in connecting to the ABC nodes and the only safe connection on the BCH network is to SV nodes.
This will all be magnified by a stress test, also called a transaction spam attack, that is planned by allies of Coingeek and nChain for November 17th, but which could begin earlier.
During this time, potentially millions of small transactions will broadcast to the network over the course of just a few days using a tool they have named Satoshi’s shotgun. This tool and others have been honed over successive stress tests leading up to now.
Major exchanges, such as Coinbase, have already announced they are going to suspend withdrawals and deposits beginning at the time of the fork, and continuing until they assess the Bitcoin Cash network is being stable.
Coingeek and nChain, understanding that keeping the network unstable will lead to heavily reduced investor confidence and predictable sell-offs of BCH on exchanges, are playing a game of chickens.
They have expressed that they are willing to suffer a vast reduction in their own wealth, and expend massive capital towards the goal of making the other miners either leave the network altogether or capitulate and run a software implementation that they completely control. BitcoinSV does not even allow outside contributors to their code.
The end result of this battle, should they be successful, will be nChain and Coingeek fully in charge of the development direction of Bitcoin Cash.
Virtually all of the coins mined during the battle will belong to Coingeek and nChain. Only the coinbase of the surviving chain will be valid and Coingeek and nChain will likely be the only parties mining that chain.
A win in this battle will prove the viability of an offense attack within the bitcoin network that results in hashpower dominance for the attacking party.
This is not a double spend. This is conquest. With this model proven, Calvin Ayre has expressed that they will continue their campaign, and that hashwars will become a regular feature of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
With dominance secured and no one left to attack within the bitcoin cash network, they will target the rest of the Proof of Work blockchains.
Coingeek has an exclusive deal with Squaremining for the production of ASICS chips that are being manufactured in Korea by Samsung.
Once they shore up their power with sha256 asics machines, likely attacking and destroying sha256 networks like Namecoin and Factom, they can set their sight on the manufacture of chips on other algorithms and begin to go after the altcoins which inevitably absorb a large portion of the fractured bitcoin cash community. Coins like Litecoin, Zcash and Dash are obvious targets, but no Proof of Work coin that gains any traction or represents any threat to Coingeek’s and nChain’s total dominance of this space, will be safe.
With the proven track record of being able to launch successful takeovers of bitcoin derivative networks, they will march on their ultimate goal: the BTC network.
If left unchecked, by the time they launch their attack against BTC, the capital that Coingeek and nChain will be able to bring to bear will be enough to accomplish their ultimate goal.”
Ari Kuqi of Cryptonize, who Craig Wright says he has know for a while, recently launched Sharkpool which says:
“All alts, including forks and splits are acts of war against Bitcoin and are going to be treated as such. Shark Pool miner will exclusively mine empty blocks on alts and sell the profits for Bitcoin (BCH).”
By bitcoin they mean BCH and more specifically BSV. Ryan X. Charles of Money Button and Yours, who in a video claimed he believes Craig Wright is Satoshi, has stated:
“PoW world money means destroying every alternative PoW blockchain, even blockchains with different PoW functions (hardware will be made exactly as generic on the CPU <-> GPU <-> FPGA <-> ASIC scale as needed for dominance).”
Meaning Armani’s description of their stated plans is probably correct, but whether it will work remains to be seen starting this Thursday.
Eth’s defense would be pretty simple: a speeding up of Proof of Stake (PoS) which is to begin launching potentially sometime in March.
New non Proof of Work (PoW) chains are in the process of being launched, including Emin Gün Sirer’s Avalanche, but for PoW chains the whitepaper itself says that there is a 51% attack angle.
The two BCH chains will have no replay protection as far as we are aware, but ABC mined transactions may include OP_CHECKDATASIG (DSV) which might not be valid on the SV chain.
It isn’t very clear, however, what this November 17th test is. Presumably they’ll be mining 120MB blocks with miner created zombie transactions like the recent 32MB blocks.
They could also mine hard to validate blocks in an attempt to fork off or keep busy/behind other miners. That’s if they have more hash.
So far they have shown to only have about 6% of BTC’s hashrate. A non-Coingeek/nChain 4% is already mining on BCH. Thus only about 3% of BTC’s hashrate would be needed to overpower them.
If they are overpowered, then any block they mine through the ABC client would be discarded. Meaning they’d lose quite a lot of money.
If, moreover, they are shown to be a threat to the entire crypto space, then all exchanges and businesses would probably delist BSV.
Ultimately, if BCH miners do not stand up were they to 51% attack, then BCH’s Proof of Work might need to be changed.
It is unlikely, however, they’ll be able to overpower supporting miners, with ViaBTC alone having nearly 10% of BTC’s hashrate, just about the same as all of BCH’s current hashrate.
Suggesting in reality we might see more of just another crypto show, rather than a serious attack, but supporting miners have probably prepared for all eventualities, with the events to unfold now in just three days.