BSV’s futures price suddenly nearly tripled on Tuesday to briefly overtake BCHABC on somewhat low volumes of just about $4 million in combination.
BSV rose from about $90 to $243, while BCHABC fell at the same time from circa $400 to $239, with their combined price staying at the same level as BCH’s spot price due to arbitrage.
We probably won’t see the real market sentiment until an actual chain-split occurs when the entire supply would then be available.
In the futures set-up on Poloniex, you have to split your BCH into SV and ABC, or you can buy either with BTC and dollar pegged USDC.
Meaning there is necessarily low liquidity, but this is the very first time that an apparent minority coin has briefly overtaken the perceived main coin.
With such low volumes, price manipulation may be fairly easy, but BSV has somewhat maintained the ratio, currently trading at $210 while BCHABC is at $270.
A chain-split coin usually gains only 50% of the main coin’s price and even then very briefly. The futures set-up, however, is very constraining due to arbitrage.
The price of BSV and ABC futures can not be higher than BCH’s spot price, except for very temporarily. That’s because arb bots would buy spot and then sell for effectively fairly risk free gain.
If BSV’s price rise had happened in a natural environment, then BCH as the main coin would have likewise increased, so keeping the ratio which may gradually rise or fall between the two but a lot more slowly than in an hour or two.
We obviously can’t discount the free market passing judgment, at least temporarily. BSV affiliated pools have now gained almost 80% of BCH’s hashrate with Coingeek alone nearing 51%.
BCH’s hashrate however remains the same at about 4.8 exahash or circa 10% of BTC’s hashrate. Meaning little is changing as far as the bigger picture is concerned.
The cards will now be revealed tomorrow at around 16:40 London time plus one or two hours, making it morning in New York and late evening in Asia.
That’s when the chain-split is to occur, and that’s when the real show is to begins, with the prelude now nearly over.