4chan is kind of bearish. Reddit is sort of bullish. The rest are in suspense after four months of fairly horizontal price movements.
Volatility has fallen considerably. Trading volumes are relatively high, but that’s 80% Tether for bitcoin. Meaning only $2 billion is in actual fiat.
By comparison, just Bithumb’s BTC/KRW trading pair used to handle more than a billion during the party days.
Such days have now been sent to the nostalgia pages after a year of doom and gloom, but is change on the cards, or will the bear keep ruling still?
We have two nice lines there courtesy of Bitcoin Markets. If it breaks up, then that says bitcoin is headed to $5,000 by mid-spring. If down, then slow, slow to $3,000 or lower.
Obviously it might move faster in either direction, or maybe the lines will have to be redrawn if it sideways a bit more. So maybe this chart helps:
It’s sort of similar. In some ways, if we ignore some differences, it is kind of identical. The reason might be the Proof of Work (PoW) design through which coins enter circulation as well as the herd behavior of bulls and bears.
Price reaches a point where miners mine at a loss. At which stage they accumulate new coins rather than selling them straight on, living off past profits, or downsizing, or selling the very minimum.
At some point you’d think an equilibrium is found between supply and demand. So price gains some stability.
As can be seen above when very zoomed out, there’s hardly been much movement for months. Hence we have another round of triangles.
In theory, considering the economy is growing, the population is growing, awareness and usage of bitcoin across the globe is growing, then you’d think once a floor is found there would be a gradual increase of price.
In addition, the new supply of bitcoin will halve in just over 12 months, lowering further downwards pressure by miners.
Eth’s supply has already reduced by circa 35%. That’s usually not instantly reflected in price, but it might add to the bull case.
Hence we have the most bullish sentiment in almost a year as cryptonians feel the end of the bear might be near.
Fairly interesting how the above sentiment indicator seems to follow price movements very well. The question however, as always, is whether this is a leading or lagging indicator.
That is, whether people became bullish because price rose or whether people became bullish hence price rose.
This apparent hope or optimism or even bullishness in some corners is perhaps the best case the bear can make. That being the usual: people are bullish, the market will do the opposite, so more bear for all.
Maybe, only the future can tell, but people do generally seem cautious rather than even timidly bullish, let alone euphoric.
In fact people probably expect it to go down. It’s what it has done so far, so 4chan is out in full force crying Wall Street baddies will doom bitcoin again.
Reddit on the other hand is currently like a 5th grader wondering whether they will really get a unicorn this Christmas, with the air very much one of disbelief.
Another technical indicator is that the 50 days moving average difference has crossed the 100 dma. That means, to those that follow these things, price is likely to rise, but of course it might not.
Making it quite an interesting period for traders who are wondering whether they should keep bearing or turn bull.