The biggest protest in British history and the crossing of five million signatures to revoke Article 50 has given way to rumors of a coup unfolding to oust Theresa May, the current British Prime Minister.
“I think she is effectively out of power right now, and I think debating her position is becoming more and more incidental by the day,” Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s First Minister, said before adding:
“What’s important now is that the House of Commons seizes control, and does so next week.”
There’s conflicting reports with some suggesting the coup is over already and presumably has failed. Something we won’t know for sure until at least tomorrow.
The cabinet coup against @theresa_may is over before it even started. Authoritative sources close to @michaelgove tell me he does not believe there should be a caretaker prime minister – so it won't be him. And @DLidington has said on the record he does not want to be PM…
— Robert Peston (@Peston) March 24, 2019
Two no confidence votes, two of the biggest defeats in Parliamentary history, a million on the streets, a “deal” that remains unacceptable to Norther Ireland’s UDP, a nation in constitutional crisis, and May still stands.
She took the leadership sort of by the backdoor as the last person standing with Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and the rest withdrawing their bid in 2016.
She then won the 2017 election sort of by default as Labor itself descended into a mini civil war between Blairites and Crobynistas.
Since then, talks of May leaving have been a frequent occurrence after her strong and stable became weak and shambles. Yet the woman doth still stand, but whether that will change tomorrow, remains to be seen.
The pound has been rising with every defeat of May, seeing some rare green recently, but markets now appear to be undecided with a triangle of sorts and some sideways forming.
If May leaves, how markets react would probably depend on who replaces her. There’s talks of David Lidington becoming a caretaker Prime Minister.
The so called Mr Europe leans remain, but then so does May. He was Europe minister for six years during Cameron’s reign, so he is intimately familiar with EU, but that apparently didn’t serve him very well during Cameron’s EU negotiations.
Regardless, it would depend on what he – or whoever takes leadership if May leaves – would offer to both the British people and the EU.
If remaining part of the single market is on the table, then questions will be raised as to why leave at all.
Such questions are getting louder, with calls now for a public inquiry into Brexit. In addition, the role of pollsters in the run up to the vote and potential GBP price manipulation is also under scrutiny.
Overall, however, so far the pound has reacted positively to any move towards a softer brexit or even remaining, and has overall reacted negatively towards the so called “deal” or any hard brexit, let alone no deal.
So if the markets were voting, they’d just scrap article 50. Presumably because a British economy as part of the EU would do far better than an isolated island that risks good friendships with its neighbors.
That’s the case for many reasons, but as far as this space is concerned, having the freedom to set base in UK and then easily transport all financial licenses to the entire European Union is a huge benefit for any blockchain or crypto company.
From that perspective, and considering just how much of a mess this has become with no apparent solution to the Northern Ireland border issue, a British Pound with a top seat in European tables would probably be more valuable.
On the other hand, if May’s deal is forced through or if Britain crashes out without a deal, the pound might see another volatile trading season that would probably make some bankers hundreds of millions, while the rest face what might be a significantly smaller economy, and reduced prestige as a nation that no longer opens doors to the entire continent.