A screenshot has been going around of a comment made in January 2019 that quite correctly predicted bitcoin’s price would be $5,300 in April.
Currently bitcoin’s price stands at $5,270, so as close as you can get, with the 4channer predicting price would sort of double to July, then double again to October, with this kind of doubling continuing until November 2020.
Or is that $87,00 some sort of a crash to finally make bankers happy? We’ll probably know in about a year and a half.
These sort of doublings have been noticed before. The two big rises, for example, were in 2013 when bitcoin’s price went from circa $50, to $100, $400, $800, and then $1,200.
Then of course 2017 when bitcoin’s price went from about $600, to $1,200, 2,400, 5,000, 10,000 and then 20,000.
In both cases, most of the doublings were in a month or two, with it gradually slowly rising to then jump parabolically.
The reason is probably because of simple supply and demand. If people expect price to rise, less sell, thus there is less supply. Assuming demand remains constant, then that by itself would increase price. If then demand suddenly rises, there’s a sort of compounding effect.
The time-traveler here, therefore, is probably going both too slowly and too fast. Too slowly in that it takes months for bitcoin to double and too fast in that it is doubling in months.
Bitcoin instead, at least so far, tends to gain a few percentages here and there and perhaps rises 50% in the whole year, to then go on rising until it 10xs in a month or two.
Now this is a very interesting chart as it looks like a massive cup and handle. If you’re not a trader, the common sense explanation of a cup and handle is that bears have sold and sold, and were left with nothing to sell any longer.
Hence we get a semi straight lines as bulls wait to see whether bears have anything else left. In its absence, bulls charge. Bears are still full of pride, however, so they give it a last go, forming the handle.
That it is a handle matters because that shows bears don’t have much left. They’re exhausted. Knowing so, bulls charge as there is no longer much sell resistance, giving some huge green candles in the process.
So the 4channer might be right about $10k in July. That would return bitcoin within a comfort zone where it can hang around. Yet what the market has in mind, remains to be seen.