Britain is in a mess due to a hasty referendum on the back of the euro crisis with the pound continuing to fall while bitcoin rises.
The close result was generally accepted initially, but then, just what exactly it means to leave Europe became more and more clear.
The conservative mess begun the very day of the results. David Cameron basically said this is a mess, dropped the papers, and left whistling away. Then, they turned on each other.
Boris Johnson was thrown out by Michael Gove who Andrew Marr chastised with other candidates then dropping like flies, leaving only Theresa May to stand.
May has just resigned, with now that same contest starting again. Boris is again the frontrunner, but Gove might get in the pan again. Who will be left standing this time remains to be seen.
That’s not even the beginning of explaining the mess Britain is in. The conservatives are a minority government. They barely have enough seats in Parliament even while in a coalition with DUP, the unionist party from Northern Ireland.
DUP has a very simple demand: no border with Britain, and no border with Ireland. So simple is the demand that it’s kind of impossible to achieve without being in the European Union at least in all but name.
May, for all her faults, did try and try to get a deal, but so far it has proved unachievable.
The electorate was told UK would get something like a Norway style deal or Canada++. Now Britain faces the prospect of no deal at all.
That’s because parliament can’t agree on anything. Nor can they agree on no deal. Depending on who is the next party leader, however, the United Kingdom may well crash out with someone like Johnson perhaps saying no more extension, no deal exit.
Johnson, or whoever is chosen party leader, wouldn’t have such mandate. He or she as it may be isn’t quite elected to be Prime Minister. A general election will have to follow, but not technically.
Constitutionally, whoever is chosen party leader becomes PM, legitimately so, but obviously it isn’t very democratic and isn’t perceived as legitimately having a mandate.
The 31st of October deadline therefore will probably have to be extended again to go back to the people in a general election so as to make a new parliament which can actually decide something.
Conservatives probably tremble at the thought of a general election, but with Boris as PM, prospects might change.
Membership of the EU, however, has led to the resignation of pretty much every conservative PM since Britain joined the union.
That’s because it may well be that there is actually no deal that can be done. EU can’t give UK preferential treatment because that risks breaking up Europe as everyone would like to pick and choose what they want.
There’s a reason why member states can’t have their own trade deals. Russia, China or America would then exert internal influence by giving carrots to say Germany and sticks to say Estonia, in the process so setting member states against each other. Instead you have deals at the union wide level, with EU having trade deals with many countries.
Likewise you can’t have freedom of services without freedom of movement. There are four indivisible freedoms at the foundation of the European Union, that of goods, of services, of establishment and of movement.
You can’t have the right for your company to be treated as established anywhere in the EU and so benefiting from numerous laws while having your citizens as considered not part of the European Union.
It may well be, therefore, that it isn’t May who is the problem and that a Boris would perhaps change nothing. The choice may well be no deal exit, or stay.
A no deal exit would have some benefits. Houses would become more affordable because businesses, and thus capital, employees and so on, may well relocate to perhaps Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt or Milan.
Anyone who gets paid in euros or dollars would probably be a bit richer because the pound may well fall below even a dollar.
British goods would probably become more affordable for Europeans, Americans and much of the world except that VAT and all other trade taxes might keep them being expensive until a trade deal in a decade.
There would also probably be less immigrants as Britain would become less appealing because it would no longer be a gateway to the vast European market.
Some of them may also feel unwelcomed, so they may well take their businesses and their money to where it is appreciated.
The other good thing is also that UK would have the opportunity to do all the deals EU has done and start again from the beginning because maybe there aren’t enough civil servants already, so that could add some jobs.
If you don’t like Spanish sun for your retirement, then the choice between Australia and Australia would be a bit easier.
Parliament will of course be supreme again and here there is no democratic deficit because no one protested against Iraq War and parliament went with it anyway.
Also, if you are one of those nocoiners, then you’ll jump with joy because no blockchain company would have much reason to chose London ahead of EU or USA.
Eventually, obviously, when the start-up expands it might consider a London branch, but all the interesting people might first go to Europe.
If you have bitcoin, then you’ll probably like the capital flow out of UK to protect from an even further falling pound. Some of this capital will probably make its way to cryptos which may even set a bull run.
There must however be one real good thing. Yet we can’t think of any. Well, taken holistically because a bitcoin bull run would be a good thing.
That’s perhaps why no one is advocating for a no deal exit, except for Farage. He is very rich and somewhat old and as a former trader, he can make money whether the pound goes up or down.
He doesn’t like the power the EU could potentially have over global banks which can’t turn around and say we’ll just leave because EU is too big of a market.
A lot easier to have the Westminster government in your pocket than the EU one. So when he talks of Parliamentary sovereignty, he means the rich having sovereignty over everyone else.
Starting with that pesky human rights act. Who even wants to have some fundamental rights that even Parliament can’t breach.
Meaning there will probably have to be a Brexit election because a no deal exit doesn’t have a mandate.
Such election may well realign British politics because whatever Jeremy Corbyn, Labour’s leader, might say, other issues will probably be largely irrelevant with voters likely mainly deciding for leave or remain.
Boris will probably have a pact with Farage to keep conservatives relevant, but that could break up the party as many conservatives may go to Libdems.
Labour may well be decimated in such election because no one knows where they stand on EU.
After years of conservatives, people are probably a bit bored with them now. The deficit is down, government borrowing is down, so after a lot of austerity people might want to splash out.
Boris is popular however. He is a modern conservative. He does gimmicky things like Boris bikes for London. Walking around London you might even spot him riding his bike like a commoner.
He’s kind of like David Cameron, just a bit less polished. While May brought back the nasty party image and feel of conservatives.
Yet the question of Europe is not about personalities and after so much austerity it’s not clear whether people would want yet another conservative.
It may well be time for change in a pendulum swing as the right has maybe accommodated a bit too much the far right.
Yet in such election, it’s difficult to predict anything, including even maybe a win by the Libdems. So the constitutional crisis continues.
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