It’s the longest day of the year, and after one of the longest sideway for circa five weeks, bitcoin has moved up.
Bitcoin rose by just over 6% from $9,200 to $9,800 on unfiltered trading volumes of some $20 billion.
Everyone is now waiting to see if it will take $10,000, with few resistance levels thereafter.
Last time bitcoin reached this level on the way up was in November 2017, with bitcoin at that point briefly stopping at $11,000, then at about $14,000 where it faced some resistance, and then straight to $20,000.
CME bitcoin futures are already above $10,000 with the premium seemingly becoming bigger to now $200-$250. Likewise for OKEx and other futures on crypto exchanges.
Even as price rises, shorts keep rising on Bitfinex margins with now some 27,400 bitcoins betting price will fall.
That’s worth $270 million, with longs $20 million less.
If price rises instead of falls, then some of that $270 million will have to be used to buy bitcoin.
So potentially creating a cascade up as shorts are called, thus forced to buy bitcoin, which increases the price, so leading to other shorts being called.
All of it so suggesting bears are probably in denial.
They’ve been used to bitcoin’s price going down, so they probably expect it to go down any minute now because that’s what it has done for a year and a half.
Yet maybe now it doesn’t want to go down anymore except for a dip. Maybe it wants to make a big U shape, but just what it wants exactly we’ll have to wait and see.