Bitcoin Falls Ahead of Futures Expiry

It’s the last Friday of the month and, as per tradition, bitcoin fell by about 5% to just under $10,000.

Bitcoin dropped from about $10,500 to just under $10,000 on falling unfiltered volumes of about $17 billion.

The above looks like its sort of sidewaying if we account for bitcoin’s volatile nature, but ahead of bitcoin’s futures expiry, bitcoin tends to fall by about $1,000.

It did so on the last Friday of April and May and June with it usually dropping on a Thursday after 4PM London time.

Many suspect manipulation with the recent slight fall in price perhaps being some sort of front-running in expectation of Wall Street shenanigans, but will history repeat?

Breaking the Futures Clockwork

Bitcoin futures volumes have fallen this month to just 30,000 bitcoin representative contracts for yesterday, compared to circa 150,000 on June 27th.

Meaning there might be less of an effect this month than previous months. In addition, price tends to be unpredictable so if you expect it to do something it tends to not do it.

Meaning it could well rise and take all by surprise and rek Wall Street shorters for once.

Plus, there’s currently a fairly significant premium in futures of about $700 or more at the time of writing.

That’s probably because CME has not yet opened for today, making it an interesting beginning of the work day for traders, especially if they were long.

If they are bullish, then presumably at some point that 5% drop may well turn into a 5% long.

So it’s not necessarily the case that just because it happened in the past it will happen again in the same way, but just what Wall Street has planned we will find out soon now probably on Thursday.

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