A Brexit bus goes around a town where Libdems have given it all they’ve got with the fate of the Boris government itself to be decided as a whiffer thin majority may become far too thin.
A conservative MP Chris Davies pleaded guilty to a false expenses claim with 19% signing for his recall, so triggering the by-election.
In a perplexing move, conservatives nominated that same Davies again, with Libdems now hoping to retake the seat they lost in 2015.
Opinion polls have yellow in a clear lead at some 43%. Conservatives at 28% and the Brexit party at 20%.
The latter does not have a manifesto, with whoever is elected having some real local power. Still, opinions are on the move.
Boris Johnson has sent blue to 34% according to the latest poll. Labour and Libdems are head to head in what may be quite delicious for tories. The Brexit Party is dwindling, down to just 9% now.
Soon, the Brexit Party will probably become irrelevant, with these sort of legacy polls for Brecon and Radnorshire perhaps needing some accounting of the general national views.
Still, yellow may well win by perhaps less of a margin than one thinks. If they do, the Prime Minister – who is already in a coalition – probably can’t quite realistically command a majority.
Defections are on the table with a general election now pretty much guaranteed if Boris has any sense as the map looks set to be redrawn.
Blue Red and Yellow
The bitcoin rollercoaster has nothing compared to the movements of opinions in Britain.
As one can see, red and blue dominated for years until it became clear parliament was not going to vote for the withdrawal agreement, and thus the rollercoaster.
Turquoise and yellow raced and raced while blue and red the ground stared. Then, in what one must consider a brilliant move by conservatives, Boris takes the helm.
Here is what’s most interesting. Turquoise plunges. Blue rises. Red, however, is still falling. While yellow turns upwards to become the only one chasing Boris.
If you combine red and yellow, they’d probably take over conservatives who are opening a big gap as they take all the turquoise votes.
Yellow however is seemingly thinking for the win, while red has been checkmated by the blue which under Boris has arguably gone even further on social matters than red ever has with Boris’ promise of documenting irregular migrants.
With social aspects taken out of the picture as Boris is a liberal, red has very little to play. While yellow has that big Bollocks to Brexit card.
The Boris Chessboard
If Boris could, he’d probably call an election right now while the public is still clinging to red. That would require recalling Parliament, and thus bringing back everyone from the holidays.
With momentum behind him and his opponents split, he could even landslide, but that’s too simple.
With all in campaign mode, Boris may well wait for red and yellow to go at each other. Yet that is too simple as well.
If he waits, he might risk seeing yellow giving red a knockout blow. That could be “easy.” Announce defection after defection, hammer labour for the Iraq war and that Ed Miliband vote on Syria – to say nothing on civil liberties and a lot more or their Communist Party advisors – and then hit blue with recking the economy, breaking up the country, weakening Europe, and on giving no deal to the people while aristocrats feed on plunging prices.
Corbyn is smart however, just unpopular. He could not beat even Maybot. And Boris has already given the knockout blow with the “reprogrammed to remain” jab.
So there would be a path to victory for yellow, but it would kind of take a miracle. If they really want to take power, for example, they’ll probably have to say what role UK would have in Europe?
It obviously can’t be the current role because the euro area has to merge. Do they want to join the euro? If not, then how can they protect the city from financial laws made at the euro table?
If red is decimated, there’s also the question of who takes their role in regards to trade unions.
If red is not decimated, then blue might landslide on a no deal basis, unless red and yellow plot a coalition with yellow sort of in charge-ish beginning with their demand to get rid of Corbyn.
Assuming a Boris landslide, then Britain would have taken a gamble, with the gamble being that Europe can at that point be very sure UK is leaving, perhaps even with no deal. So maybe they’ll open the trade negotiations and ditch all that backstop nonsense.
As we have seen so far Europe is not willing to do that now because like most of Britain they too expect a general election. So Boris should just get on with it.
If the coalition wins, then it gets a bit more complex, but it doesn’t look like labour has any plans to ditch Corbyn. So UK might have to switch parties if they want a proper opposition with brilliant strategist Vince perhaps “masterminding” all this.
If yellow looks like it has a chance, then there could be an avalanche, but they’re quite behind in polls right now with Boris taking off. Yet they’re the only ones chasing him.
Making this the most complex electoral picture in living memory with opinions in Britain becoming more volatile than bitcoin.
So little is certain except maybe that this election will probably have the highest turnout perhaps in history.
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