Election season greets much of the world with Britain in a campaign mode as blue and yellow take turns in a yo-yo that would make bitcoin proud.
Bitcoin has gone up and bitcoin has gone down as the currency plays ping pong with $12,000.
Can it overtake it? Well, there are many things that could affect the answer with UK’s leave or remain potentially being one of them. So what is likely to happen with Brexit and thus potentially with markets, including cryptos?
Pound is the Euro Now
The surprise fall in quarterly economic growth by 0.2%, or 2.2% in real terms if we account for inflation, has accelerated Pound’s fall to near the lowest level ever in the history of the currency.
As pound stands at pretty much parity with the euro and may well even eye a fall below it, so too others might eye the argument that UK should perhaps just join the euro.
The currency they laughed at and said would never work is now laughing at Britain and its choice to not join France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the entire continent.
Yet in red halls and blue halls they’re not laughing anymore as a likely yellow and green alliance gears up to potentially shake up the establishment.
A Yellow Green Rebellion?
“Johnson’s strategy is to unite the Conservative and Brexit party votes and face down a divided opposition. Yet opposition divisions are healing with remarkable speed.
On 15 August, the attempt to build an effective remain force will begin when the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Plaid Cymru agree a non-aggression pact in 30 constituencies. They will back one candidate in each seat who will stand as X Liberal Democrat (Unite to Remain) or Y Green (Unite to Remain) and so on. The “Unite to Remain” title has already been agreed with the Electoral Commission so the problems found in running unity candidates in the European elections shouldn’t trouble us next time.”
So says Nick Cohen in an article that has yellow, as well as blue and red, starting to wonder: can they actually really win?
“Its most optimistic assumption, based on Nigel Farage splitting the right-wing vote, suggests that 200 seats could be vulnerable to a remain challenge,” Cohen says.
That’s up from other commentators saying maybe just 50 seats. Next we may well hear them wonder if they can have a full on majority by some magic.
But the Green Party was quick to say on Twitter all this alliance was news to them, just as Green Party members were quick to say it better be true or they cancelling their membership.
Green in many ways doesn’t really have a choice. Yellow very much likes their emphasis on the environment because if France gets to have solar paved highways, UK can at least have solar paved pavements.
If green however wants to play pretty, then yellow could well turn on them and say yellow is greener than green.
So this may have been news to maybe whoever is in charge of the Twitter handle, or maybe there have been private talks that have not yet been shared fully, with Cohen so leaking them.
Regardless, if we assume a green and yellow alliance hand in hand on the two most important matters facing the nation – Brexit and the environment – then it can get very interesting.
A recent poll shows that a yellow and green alliance could actually even take outright power and replace Boris Johnson.
Conservatives are ahead, but if we add Libdems and Greens, then not by much at all.
That would make blue 31% and yellow-green 28%. Basically within the margin of statistical errors.
That’s especially the case as if yellow rises to be the best contender to take power, then a lot of red will defect because many of them are not happy at all with Corbyn’s appeasement on Brexit.
Membership numbers are plunging for Labour, while they’re up and up for Libdems. There’s only one reason for it: Brexit.
While everyone believes Libdems when they say Bollocks to Brexit, no one believes a thing Labour says. Remainers call them a leave party, leavers call them a remain party, with red so having made potentially a colossal mistake which can’t even be rectified now.
It can’t be rectified because Corbyn has in many ways facilitated Brexit. Changing him at this stage isn’t quite possible because are they going to have their own leadership election or are they going to fight a general election?
A general election that may well be imminent because Boris Johnson has not been elected by the people and has practically no majority.
The question is when. Labour has botched it again by not putting forth a no confidence vote as they continue their appeasement, but if Boris has any sense he would call it himself in the first week of September.
Otherwise… well a million people peacefully marched only recently. In that British tradition, maintaining it peacefully requires legitimacy and in this case there is none without a general election.
Still, even if clowns play kings, he’ll have to call an election eventually. Just because UK technically might have left on the 31st of October doesn’t mean they can’t go back in again.
At that election, blue may well be decimated as punishment for usurping democracy, at which point yellow may well take power and all can forget stupid rich bankers came up with this idea that Britain is not European.
So not calling an election to conclude before 31st of October would probably be an incredibly risky strategy for Boris Johnson.
If he does call the election then we can have some fun in a carnival for democracy where blue and yellow go head to head in what would probably be a very close call.
In an election where the turnout might perhaps be the highest in British history as even cats will be affected by the outcome, let alone everyone else.
Just as markets would be affected, including cryptos, with any outcome good for bitcoin of course. If out, then pound maybe even 50 cents, so everyone rushes to hedge. If in after all, then we can perhaps look forward to a European SEC to give real regulatory competition to America.
Nor is there much difference between blue and yellow where bitcoin is concerned presuming Boris Johnson just follows the policies of David Cameron in that area. Yellow however is for localism and sort of decentralized power so maybe they’ll be more friendly, but there’s not much difference there really.
The difference of opinion is Europe which may well shake up British politics as the fightback ups a gear.