“We will stand up for liberty, democracy, the rule of law, equality and human rights – the ideals that we share with our friends and allies.
We will remain at the heart of the alliances that span the world. And we will continue to use the breadth of our expertise in diplomacy, defence and development to uphold and safeguard the global order on which peace and prosperity depends.”
So said Boris Johnson, the unelected Prime Minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Music to our ears those words, if only words were actually action. For though we do not doubt Boris does mean it, we do doubt meaning it matters at all.
The mother of Europe, Angela Merkel, has given boy Boris 30 days. The modern version of Napoleon, Macron, who stood to face the dark forces of nationalism and won, of course agreed with the German Chancellor.
A plain reading would perhaps suggest they are open to consider this Gatt 24, both paragraph 5b and c.
That allows for a continuation of the current state of affairs until a full free trade agreement, with this paragraph usually being for ten years because that’s how long free trade agreements tend to take.
That’s the b. The c says that there has to be a “skeleton” agreement. Some sort of plan, some sort of foundation, or more simply said, the parties have to actually mean it, that there will actually be a free trade agreement eventually.
According to Boris, that would then address the backstop matter. Europe is probably wondering whether it would, so they’ve basically asked for some document fleshing out the actual proposal.
It’s a necessary move because it could avoid an outright constitutional crisis in Britain, and thus may avoid prolonging the mess. It is also necessary because of this:
It is illegal to believe the polls (joke obvs). Yet, Boris is popular while the remain side, Libdems, have to deal with Corbyn’s games.
In an election where no deal exit or remain are the options, Libdems could potentially win, but they would need some miracle.
Europe therefore is probably thinking that Boris could actually win this election even with no deal. They might even be thinking it is maybe likely. So they’ve offered an olive branch.
What Boris does with that may well determine just how true the words we quoted above will turn out to be in the years and decades to come.
For it is here where much will be decided, but not necessarily conclusively. Without knowing the future, we can all create our tales of what it would be, but just as parliament or the supreme court can not be bound by its own decisions, so too the people can never be bound by themselves… unless they want to obviously.
Britain can be outside of Europe while being in Europe for most purposes. It has its own army, but if there is a European army, it can be almost part of it, like it is almost part of the US army.
This bridge between continents does indeed give Britain a great role as an architect of the international order for the island will most probably always remain European, but also sort of American.
So what may be in the cards is no “real” change. There may be small differences regarding, you know laws on bendy bananas, but no one cares about that.
There might be less freedom of movement, but most Europeans are rich so, who doesn’t want rich people.
The European Court of Justice (ECJ) might not bind UK courts, but it is very difficult to find one ECJ decision that an independent might disagree with, not least because plenty of ECJ judges are British.
Plus, courts might willingly “bind” themselves to ECJ decisions as they do to US or Australian and Canadian decisions by Supreme courts, not least because such cases are very difficult, thus decisions by any other same level court can be very persuasive.
They might not take our fish, boy Boris could say, but even the chief of the Bank of England is not British. Who expects fishing companies as well to not be owned by the French or Germans or whoever wants.
There may be some differences in laws, technical aspects, but in the end the only real difference might be that Britain still has the pound, while Europe still has the euro.
A euro without there being quite a Europe. There is still a France, a Germany, an Italy, a Spain and all the rest. So in many ways Britain is leaving nothing because there isn’t really much there at all.
It is perhaps better to see it as Britain is not joining a Europe that may become, at least it is not for now. Depending on what sort of Europe arises, they may well do later.
Ursula the blond has promised a European two years long summit where presumably instead of donkeys, it will be made of lions in attendance.
There is almost no detail on how this would work exactly, but the idea is fascinating if it is some sort of Citizens’ Assembly where the people, for the first time in centuries, are to decide just how they are to be governed.
Although UK might by that point be out, presumably the British people will have an ear, but perhaps not a very loud voice.
The way this new Europe would work is probably by having three houses of Parliament. One of them being that of the political heads of state, like presidents, prime ministers, chancellors.
The other being the current parliament, but with law making powers from which presumably naturally will arise Europe wide parties. Unlike currently where people vote for national parties, creating a European parliament that is a bit of a mess.
The third house would be the Citizens’ Assembly, a random selection of 500 individuals to create a talking shop with limited, if any, law making powers to begin with, but with consultative or advisory powers.
From the elected parliament, the head of the party that wins can then be the president or prime minister, appoints ministers, and executes policy.
It would probably take decades to reach that, with plenty of questions on how all this would work, but Europe clearly needs reforms to have a more united front and perhaps continent wide regulatory agencies like Europe’s SEC equivalent.
Once all that is done, then UK can decide whether it wants to join or not. France and Germany are leading this merger. Italy is thinking about it, but really Italians should be happy the French and Germans even allow them to join as they might finally get some of that German efficiency and some of that French liberta.
Spain is thankful, as is Portugal, but it may be the Belarux countries join first, then Spain, Italy, then maybe even Poland if it doesn’t flirt too much.
By join, we mean merge. Like the French and German parliamentarians now at times sit in a parliament together. Their armies are becoming one army, and so on.
A United Europe can be a very potent force for peace and prosperity because it would be able to have its own foreign policy. What happened in Arabia, for example, could have gone very differently had there been a Europe that stands on its own two feet. Same in regards to Ukraine, which would have probably not even occurred either because Europe would have not provoked Russia if it was not following American orders, or because Russia would have been told to shut up.
Now Russia is semi-European, as is Turkey, but they’re not quite European. The descendants of Greece and Rome do not poison their own politicians. While for Turkey, they’ve progressed very well, but, they might have a better leadership role in moving forward Arabia.
Both Russia and Turkey should be integrated fully otherwise, especially economically as well as maybe some organizations, but without say in parliament.
Then Europe can be in charge in its own house, while America can mind its own business in its own continent starting with lifting its neighbors through some sort of martial plan for Latin America to bring them the rule of law.
The World at Crossroads
If Europe is perhaps “sorted,” at least conceptually and maybe in dreams, election season across the world has almost the entire world at crossroads.
Dictator Putin, who seemingly unhappy with the $70 billion he has already made somehow wants to continue diktating, will probably get 99.95% of the votes.
He is wrong to do so, and Russians will see it sooner or later, but he is not wrong in the analysis, he is wrong in choosing the easy “solution.”
It is true the fall of the government in the 90s was awful for Russia, as it was for Eastern Europe and the Balkans, but the problem wasn’t liberalism, the problem was inability to create a functioning government because they did not quite know how.
So they went back to their own way of semi-dictatorship, but enforcing the rule of law does not require a dictatorship. To the contrary, enforced rule of law under liberalism has prevailed and will always prevail because the freedom it provides allows for quicker feedback, and thus for a quicker change of course, and thus an avoidance of collapses which for Russia are a bit far too frequent historically.
Israel too is having their own election. They too have a dictator of sorts, Binyamin Netanyahu, who has been ruling the country one way or another for 30 years.
Old age apparently does not matter to him either, nor it seems does it matter to Israelis’ their leaders’ inability to end those damn wars.
This is the only country that conscripts women as far as we know. Instead of reading Shakespeare, 18 year old girls there as well as boys read manuals on how to operate tanks or whatever they do in the army.
It’s awful because these peoples deserve peace after all they’ve gone through for millennials, yet it is unlikely Netanyahu will give them any of it as he seems to thrive on war.
At least there, they can vote, but it is not clear whether any man of worth of Israel, or indeed woman, has risen to the challenge.
Change perhaps is not to be expected in a country that has ultra-nationalist parties and appears to have not one party that stands for liberalism in the full meaning of the word where loving thy neighbor prevails over me first.
It may continue so in part because of ugly Trump whose shameful rhetoric has plenty wondering whether America shouldn’t send that Lady Liberty back to France.
There too is election season, if it ever had a pause at all with their elections process going over years, or better said, being constant.
Once they do actually finally vote, rather than just keep talking about it, we’ll find out whether they have forgotten those ugly chants that demean fully this great land.
Democracy, they lack. Corruption has gotten far too much as distraction by both entertainment and war, has allowed scoundrels to get fat and fat.
Moreover they do not hear as much as they should, with it unforgivable that Trump would in any way attempt to bully Europe or far worse, non natives.
That’s in addition to everyone else. The media, the judiciary, while sucking up to the army because obviously he fears it.
Isolating that background however and focusing on the China part, he has apparently threatened to order all American companies to get out.
That has sent stocks down, as well as bitcoin, while gold is a bit up or not quite moving much. An analysis of that might suggest investors are a bit unhappy with risk, but they’re not quite ready to put cash under mattresses.
That’s obviously because it isn’t clear whether he would actually go ahead with it while knowing that China could sell the US debt, and so raise the government costs.
The game here though is complex, and China has shut down our crypto exchanges, so realistically we can’t really be very objective or independent.
They should open their markets and they should give Hong Kong democracy too.
The People’s Election
While donkeys there play their games, the lions do too with September potentially starting an autumn of dissent as Extinction Rebellion returns to London streets while in America they might perhaps storm area 51 to find out what alien tech the donkeys hide.
When Europe or America cough, the rest fall ill or worse, with protests across the globe as millennials rise to demand greater representation.
They speak of falling trust in institutions, but it is not a matter of trust as much as no accountability. There is almost no accountability for many decisions, or lack of decisions, with people so choosing between some guy or girl that shows up on TV all the time every 4 years or so and then sit to watch the show where they participate not.
Far greater public say on decision making at top levels but also lower levels can restore not trust, but accountability, as well as provide those most affected by decisions far greater representation.
For the millennial generation is the one that watched millions march against war and no one cared at all. They watched billions given to banks with, again, no public say.
In America especially the democratic deficit is reaching significant proportions because their nation-wide regulatory agencies at times do not even engage in public consultations.
There is not one action of Congress anyone down the street can recall for now three years despite the need to do plenty of, in many cases, obvious things.
The entertainment political show on TV moreover watches as our forests burn, with no brain among the donkeys to say: well send the planes with water you dumhead.
What are they for, decoration? Or is this the action of the Brazilian government, in which case, what on earth gives them say over this global treasure that affects kings and peasants.
What are Brazilians going to do, shoot our planes? Well then, let’s see how much they can do so as we perhaps even annex it under UN jurisdiction, why not?
Why not. Why not send UN troops to Gaza and west bank as well, so address any Israeli concerns and bring peace to the region once and for all.
Why not paint all roofs with solar and why not hydro every river? Why not build houses? Why not have a state bank to compete with the others? Why not break monopolies? Why you selling our churches and why are they always closed, day or night. What kind of place of peace and quiet is a closed one?
Why not tax wealth above one billion at 90%, and with that revenue remove utterly regressive sales taxes or VAT?
Is there actually an answer to all these questions? Well if there is, you’ll be sure to not hear it from the mouths of donkeys, at least for now.
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