Footsie 100 has turned down today by 0.45% with the pound falling too before a bounce while bitcoin has been rising, up nearly 10%.
Numerous factors are contributing to bitcoin’s rise, including the launch of an institutional ETF which is to start trading this September 5th.
Brexit however may be one other factor, with the pound volatility slightly reflected on bitcoin too.
Pound started falling earlier today as chances of a no deal increased after Boris Johnson, the British Prime Minister, threatened MPs with deselection if they vote for a new bill that proposes delaying the exit date if there is no deal unless parliament votes to leave without a deal.
“This is undoubtedly a new ruthlessness on the part of the prime minister and I think for a broad church party like the Conservatives I think it bodes ill for us,” Dominic Grieve, who served as attorney general under David Cameron, said.
That pound fall may have led to some bitcoin gain, but then a conservative MP dramatically walked across the Commons chamber to join Jo Swinson of Libdems (pictured above, guy on blue suite with back to Boris).
All looked on as Boris’ majority became a minority, with conservatives now unable to command parliament on their own.
An application for an emergency debate is being held later today with MPs to vote on whether to take control of proceedings.
If the vote passes, then Boris will probably presume he will lose the vote: extending the exit day if no deal unless parliament votes for a no deal exit.
As such, he will probably table his own vote for a general election, which requires 2/3rd of MPs to vote for it.
“I think the important thing is to stop a no-deal exit and let the people of this country decide their own future,” Jeremy Corbyn, Labour’s official leader of the opposition, said.
Presumably that means he will whip MPs to vote for an election, but apparently they’re worried now the date might be changed.
The general public vote is to be held on the 14th of October, just days before the crucial EU summit on the 17th of October. Worries about Boris’ technical plays, however, has led some to suggest he may say 14th first and then change it to after the 31st.
So this is all a bit of a mess, and there is only one way of getting out of it in a peaceful and legitimate manner.
If we go back a bit to how we came here, the summery is: Rebel Alliance declares unity in tabling law to prevent no deal Brexit. King Boris prorogues to force them into a no confidence vote (election). Rebels say nah, and move to seize control of parliament. Boris will probably say: fine, I’ll table the damn thing (election).
The vote however needs an incredible two thirds of parliament. A lot of MPs may well fear for their own seats, like Mogy Mogg who is in a remain marginal.
Boris arguably does have the constitutional power to simply ask the Queen to dismiss parliament because he has no majority, thus can’t command its confidence.
So the vote passing would perhaps not be necessary, especially if it is a majority, and especially considering this election law was some temporary vehicle to keep the 2010 coalition stable.
Yet just what will happen is not clear but logically an election before the 31st of October is absolutely necessary for the people must make a decision in this matter if it is to be resolved peacefully.
There’s technicalities and all that, but the greatest technicality is objective rationality.
Those in their late 20s and early 30s especially would be considerably aggrieved if this is not handled in the utmost legitimate manner – an election prior to Brexit.
They happen to have the real ultimate power both peaceful and otherwise, so one hopes we just have this damn election on October 14th and so peacefully decide just what on earth should be done.
Such election would be a proxy referendum with two options: no deal exit, or remain.
Boris, Corbyn or Jo can say what they want and they will say plenty, but anyone who votes for Boris will do so on the assumption of no deal. Likewise anyone who votes for Jo on the assumption of remain. For Corbyn it’s a maybe.
Boris says he’ll be able to get a deal, but now no one believes him because astonishingly he has not even proposed anything:
“Philip Hammond, the Tory former chancellor, says Angela Merkel said on Friday that, nine days into the 30 days set aside for a new deal, she had yet to see any new proposals from the UK. Will Johnson publish any ideas he has?
Johnson says the UK will be able to get a deal within 30 days. But he says that cannot happen while parliament is threatening to block no-deal.”
The logical arithmetic of this matter may well be that there is no deal which is acceptable to both EU and the likes of Farage or Mogg because you can not square the Irish border which is brought into sharp focus as the whole point of EU is to facilitate peace through getting rid of such borders that divide families.
So he has put forward no proposal because there is no proposal that can square the circle in an acceptable way to the European Union, at least as far as it stands now.
Hence he is holding up the carrot of a deal while ratcheting up the rhetorics of no deal in the face of street protests.
With the stakes as high as war and peace itself, there can be no resolution save for by the full consent of the electorate or parliament as their proxy.
Parliament can not agree on anything but can-kicking, however, so a new parliament is necessary to have a decision.
Meaning a general election as a proxy referendum is an absolute requirement to get over this utter mess.