Bitcoin’s rise and fall has coincided with pound’s fall and rise. There were of course other events too, like CNY’s devaluation, with correlation not necessarily indicating causation but odds on the deal passing had it at 50/50, hence perhaps why no bitcoin movement.
As it happened, nothing happened yesterday. Nor has anything happened today really, with bitcoin’s lack of movement potentially suggesting nothing has gone on behind the scenes unless the deal has already been priced in.
The vote is still pretty close as UK’s parliament finds itself in the most peculiar position where the opposition is kind of in charge.
Such opposition now wants to go as far as basically reopening negotiations with Keir Starmer of Labour suggesting they might put down an amendment to have all of UK in a customs union.
If such amendment passes then obviously the deal has failed as it would not be legally binding because EU would have to consent to this, but parliament is a bit of a mess currently.
That’s due to the fixed terms act, a constitutional mistake that gives the opposition the choice of when to have an election.
Labour is polling at barely 20%. They have thus voted against an election, making them a protest group that sort of is in charge of the country’s laws.
They now want to vote on a second referendum, which might pass. In that case, this situation of the opposition being in charge of parliament might continue for months.
France, The Veto That Saves Britain?
Although nothing has changed so far, it can change at any moment as France has already indicated they’re not happy at all with an extension.
“We know that the European Union want us to leave, we know that we have a deal that allows us to leave. We are going to leave on October 31st. We have the means and ability to do so,” Michael Gove of the conservatives said.
Understandably EU does not want to get involved at all at this stage. This is an internal matter, but it can also be or become an internal matter for EU.
That’s because while the hugely unpopular Corbyn might be in charge of parliament, it is Boris that is still in charge of the country and its policy, including its foreign policy.
We’ve already had hints at how he might pressure EU to not give an extension about those countries that vote for it going to the back of the queue.
In addition if there’s an extension UK might simply not nominate commissioners, and arguably there’s a lot more he can do.
These pages are pro a United Europe because this space in particular, but also others, need a proper jurisdictional alternative of around the same economic size as that of US.
We’d rather see Europe strengthened as it can be considering Boris appears to have the right tone of a “deep and special partnership.”
An extension instead would just keep Farage in the European parliament for longer as the British people most probably would vote for this deal because they don’t even know what the actual deal is.
So France could veto and force the hands of the opposition which is trailing in polls. Or it could be a smaller country which Boris might
bribe persuade. Or it could be EU itself saying Boris is not negotiating, he is not agreeing to any terms, so they technically can’t give an extension.
The latter is probably how it will go. Hence Dominic Raab, pictured above, smiling this morning on TV.
If there is no extension, then it’s probably not really no deal even if parliament votes it down tomorrow.
Government is saying they’ve restarted preparations for no deal, but obviously EU knows what’s going on. In reality they’ll probably pretend the transition period has begun because there is a deal supported by the majority of the people according to polls. So it’s more just labour putting Corbyn before country.
How Labour Lost its Senses?
That’s a mystery. The once party of Cool Britannia, is now trying to split the right into conservatives and the Brexit Party because they think that’s the only way Corbyn can gain power.
Astonishingly, the left wants to risk having Nigel Farage in the British Parliament! And they claim to be pro-immigration and all that.
Not that an alliance of convenience between nationalists and communists is anything new, but we all know how that show ends, hence Boris consistently polling above Labour by double digits.
Yet for some reason Labour thinks if there’s an extension or a second referendum or whatever else, Boris would somehow lose support for some reason known to no one because the British public can not see, nor hear, nor can they talk.
As the public mood changes, however, labour risks splitting itself because just as some crossed the floor when no deal was on the table, so too they might cross the floor now when there’s a deal and a clear direction and even a clear vision.
A deal Labour doesn’t care about at all. They go on about workers rights instead as if democracy will end on the 1st of November. Not that anyone cares about this Europe matter. Let’s talk about deregulation!
Libdems Save the Day?
Labour would love Libdems to change their mind in voting for this deal. It’s probably not going to happen, but should it?
They’re obviously pro Europe, but with this deal on the table and Europe urging everyone to back it, what exactly is pro Europe in this case?
Would a second referendum for example really be good for Europe? We’ll hear the same arguments again, with a now pretty powerful argument on the leave with this deal side because Boris has shown some negotiations skills.
He’ll easily sell his powerful vision of a UK-EU alliance and really all he’d need to do is repeat deep and special partnership.
Moreover where independents are concerned, they’ll stay out because they’ll want to know what the actual deal is.
Will he get passporting? What institution will UK stay in? Will Interpol still be on for UK? Will Erasmus? What does “deep and special” mean exactly? Two words we and presumably the public will hold him to account for.
Without knowing all this, a second referendum is a bit useless because it’s pretty much exactly the same arguments.
Moreover things might now reverse. Such referendum may well be a proxy election because Labour is already not talking about Europe but about deregulation and all that. So it would be Corbyn v Boris with Libdems on Corbyn’s side which would make them look great on the conservative marginals.
There may be a time for a second referendum once we know what the actual deal is next year, but right now it’s pointless and it just keeps Corbyn in power in parliament for longer, which also doesn’t look great for Libdems.
The problem for yellow however is that they’ve been very pro-remain, so it’s very difficult for them to vote for this deal now.
The Brexit DUP being against brexit is just another peculiarity in a national discussion over a deal that no one even knows what the deal is.
What’s on the table instead is an agreement that basically says we agree to talk about the deal, and while we do this talking nothing changes, but if we don’t agree on a deal then these baseline things will apply like citizens rights and special arrangements in Northern Ireland to avoid a border and to respect the Belfast Good Friday Agreement.
The government says Northern Ireland has got a great deal, which really should be called withdrawal agreement but that’s far too long for five seconds TV.
Asked this morning if it is so great why shouldn’t all of UK have it too, Raab said EU didn’t give it, but they have compromised due to the sensitive situation in Northern Ireland.
DUP however is against it, but unionists seem divided, with another unionist party in Northern Ireland for example backing it.
They claim this agreement would put a virtual border because of checks in ports, but there are checks even now for illegal goods or smuggling.
There’s no border at all because they’re using a blockchain to share data and so ensure the integrity of UK’s territory while not having a land border.
Plus none of this matters for now because Boris wants a free trade agreement which would make these arrangements irrelevant.
He’s always said the matter of Northern Ireland is to be settled at the trade talks which would address any concerns EU might have had in regards to tariffs and so on.
Once those talks are done, the people of Northern Ireland will have the right to vote on whether they do or not want what’s on the table.
Meaning as unionists, DUP should see how all of the United Kingdom has gotten a great deal that puts them in a strong negotiating position when it comes to the actual deal which does actually matter with this withdrawal agreement being more common sense stuff to get to the talks.
That might now be the stage for many remainers who might just accept Brexit is happening, and if that’s the case then just get on with it.
Because Boris keeps polling 15% ahead of any other party and because who would lead remain in a referendum? Hopefully not Tony Blair. Certainly not Corbyn. SNP, as nationalists, would fall completely on deaf ears in England. While Jo Swinson of Libdems could, but it’s difficult to see how it would change anything considering the current mood of the country.
People now probably just want to see what the real deal is, what does Boris get. Then if they don’t like it, they can vote Libdems into government if they want.
As it happens currently they back Boris, and by a big margin, with Libdems seemingly hitting a ceiling at 20%.
They back him because they voted to leave, so what’s the point of delaying all this with extensions and amendments and second referendums etc.
The country really should just move on and start re-assuring people both in UK and in EU.
The latter kind of don’t know whether we’re still best buddies. Whether they can come visit. Whether we like them still or whether we’re now closing the door because of going through some stage or whatever.
With this deal it’s easy to reassure them. Visa free travel, temporary and limited free movement for business purposes. No border in Ireland. Nothing changes really except Farage is kicked out of the European parliament.
Things can change however if this deal doesn’t go through because we’d have to keep seeing Farage’s face if they go for a second referendum or whatever, with Boris probably knowing Farage might be out for his lunch, so he’ll probably push it through.
He’ll probably have the country’s backing for it because although we could have easily been for remain, very on balance, we can’t be for remain at any cost or for attempting it without a very good reason.
There could have been such good reasons, hence why we’ve recently dedicated some space to this matter even though it only indirectly affects this industry.
It’s a hugely important matter however which can’t be ignored in any space, but we’re now kind of fed up with it and don’t really care anymore until the actual deal because we think the right decision is just to pass it through, but if it doesn’t pass then whatever.
In that case if we could bother we might satire an editorial on it with Politicians Decide to Bore the Country, but really, the country has moved on even if politicians might have not.
They want cool Britannia. They want confidence, optimism, punkness. Look at the British young, with their cool style and sophistication in what is starting to feel a bit like the sixties. A cultural revolt after two decades of war and Mccarthyism to say enough. We have fun now.
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