The pound has risen significantly recently from below $1.2 to nearly $1.3 with the euro up too from $1.08 to now above $1.11.
The reason for both is probably because of the Brexit deal which might end uncertainty both in the United Kingdom and in the European Union.
The document is now to go through parliament within three days, with a vote on it starting later today.
There are suggestions parliament is going to disagree with this three days timetable. In which case Boris Johnson, the currently not yet generally elected Prime Minister, might call an election.
There are also suggestions there might be numerous amendments, including a customs union which parliament has rejected already three times. If any of the “wrecking” amendments pass, rumors are Johnson will just go for an election.
The question has been how for now quite a few weeks as the Fixed Terms Parliament Act requires 2/3rds to agree.
Labour is not going to agree as they’re way down the polls at just 22%. While conservatives have increased their lead to what would probably be a landslide 37%.
One way of getting an election could be a vote of no confidence tabled by conservative backbenchers with all conservatives then voting for it.
That would place labour in a position of saying they have confidence in Boris Johnson, but although all know they don’t really have confidence, it still wouldn’t look great at all.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) is clamoring for an election because they’re polling well in Scotland. You’d think they’d definitely wouldn’t vote they have confidence.
Libdems too are polling much better than they previously have. They might even overtake SNP in parliament. So even a straight vote under the Fixed Terms Act could pass.
Johnson would have to secure an election first which EU would probably quickly grant because there would be a democratic event. There might have to be a summit for that to be granted, but arguably there could be an emergency one of ambassadors or foreign ministers.
Brexit Next Week?
All this rush is obviously because British and EU law says UK is out on the 31st of October. That’s next week. If a deal is not passed by then, it would be out on a no-deal basis.
Meaning there is a risk of an accidental no-deal exit because EU is saying they want to see what parliament votes first, parliament is saying they want EU to give extension first, Boris is saying get this huge piece of legislation through in three days, backbenchers are saying not without a trillion amendments, while the law says out next week.
All of it left to the last minute to force a decision, but there’s a risk the decision is the default one, a no deal exit.
EU is saying a no deal exit wouldn’t be due to them, meaning they’ll grant an extension maybe at another summit next week. It’s not clear it would change anything without some democratic event, like an election, as it sounds very difficult to get this through by Thursday, with the EU parliament ratifying it on Thursday too.
Yet Corbyn might get what he wants. That’s an extension with an election after the 31st of October so that he can say look Boris didn’t do what he said with Corbyn further hoping Farage would split the vote.
However everyone knows Boris has tried all he can, but he’s not in control of Parliament so he has to follow the law. Making Boris’ pitch pretty easy: give me a mandate, then judge.
While Farage would be laughed at. He wants a no-deal exit. Meaning what? Kicking out EU citizens and EU likewise for British citizens?
The Northern Ireland situation is a bit more complicated but that’s only because of hypotheticals when none of it might apply once there’s a proper trade deal next year at which point they can then judge.
Zero tariffs on goods, no quotas, and so on, means there wouldn’t need to be a border. There wouldn’t need to be checks. So this might be more DUP electioneering as they were apparently losing voters to remain parties last month, putting them a bit like in Labour’s position between leave and remain.
It’s a complex situation however with it unclear just what Parliament will decide, but the public seems to be backing Boris, with an election imminent for the past few weeks but it still remains a question as to when exactly.
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