After months of more volatility than bitcoin, the British pound is now moving on a very straight line.
Since October 18th, roughly when the election was called, it has clung to $1.29 in a somewhat rare period of stability for one of the most volatile currency of the year.
What happens to it next is determined by what the British people vote for in a defining election that will transform the United Kingdom whichever way it goes.
Here too some stability has returned with Farage and Libdems both pretty much out of the race as the latter drop their ambition to become Prime Minister.
It is back to the old red versus blue in an election where red has never been redder, and blue has a king’s descendant as its leader.
Making this not quite an election, but a defining battle of ideas between two polar opposites strands of politics.
Neither is liked much, but both have the chance to get a majority. Whichever does, will leave a very different country in 2025.
Brexit Out, Britain In
The British people have a choice between a brexiteer and a brexiteer. The latter one wants a referendum too, so remainers can’t complain either.
Making brexit a non-issue in a twist after Boris Johnson, the conservative candidate for Prime Minister, managed to get a deal.
Well, a withdrawal agreement to open talks for the deal. Meaning for a year nothing changes as the transition period continues, except where EU is concerned there has been one significant change.
Boris Johnson has not nominated a British commissioner in breach of obligations, leading EU to sue the United Kingdom.
That’s not quite a great start of negotiations with an economy nearly 10x bigger than the United Kingdom. It’s not a great signal either to independents who already had concerns following the non-pact with Farage.
Boris Johnson has not once uttered the words deep and special relationship during this election campaign. Frankly no one quite knows what he plans to do in regards to EU. What sort of trade deal does he want. What would the relationship look like?
That he hasn’t done so is an indictment of the corporate press. We have asked, though where the blockchain is concerned in regards to the Northern Ireland border arrangements, but have received no response.
Apparently Boris Johnson is running scared of facing Andrew Neils again. Who knows how many paragraph 5cs he hasn’t read.
This is precisely why the idea of a Citizens’ Assembly has risen in prominence so that the people have the ability to continue scrutinizing politicians for five years, not just five weeks, but we stand where we stand and where we stand is we have no clue where brexit is concerned.
Just get it done. Who cares about the biggest trading block in the world that happens to be right next door. Or indeed about another year of deal or no deal, or maybe three years, or perhaps a decade if not always since whether in or out will probably continue to remain a question depending on events.
Corbyn thinks that questioning should start with a referendum in six months. Since he wants to stay in the single market and the like, then who would bother to vote in that referendum is not too clear, but the question in this election is hard brexit or soft brexit. So brexit either way, making no one care about brexit.
It’s All About The Money
Do nurses grow on trees? – someone asked Johnson-aas. He’s promising 50,000 of them after letting many of them go during years of austerity, sometime with him in government.
A bombshell of sorts was dropped by Corbyn who claimed conservatives had been discussing the NHS with USA in trade deal negotiations.
Johnson had claimed the NHS is not on the table. When Trump was asked during summer if it is on the table, he made one of his faces to say: duh, obviously.
That looked bad for Borisov so then he said nah, it’s not, but we all know it is and now Corbyn has proved it.
That’s obviously a proxy argument. The point being made is Britain is going to be ripped off by the United States which due to its far bigger size has far bigger bargaining power.
EU would probably want to rip off UK too, with little Britain so finding out what it means to be a small fish among sharks.
That however might offend the sensibilities of “patriots” who’d rather think this is Great Britain, not a little one. Hence the NHS proxy argument for far too big of a theme.
An argument Corbyn is winning. Making us wonder whether we have underestimated him and indeed whether this is a very intelligent man.
We’re not sure Boris is anymore after suspending parliament. Or indeed after seeing his manifesto which contains not a word about business – his constituency – let alone about this space.
A manifesto that suggests a conservative government would move in to limit the power of the judiciary. Something objectionable out of hand.
Not that Corbyn’s manifesto is perfect. He wants to interfere with the media. Another area where playing with fire is a better idea.
A small tax cut from Boris is a safer zone to roam, while a new tax band for those earning more than £80,000 is a smart zone for Corbyn.
Huge investment in infrastructure from blue. Huge investment in everything from red. Gigabit internet from one, free internet completely from the other. More police shouts one. More everything shouts the other. Biggest investment in a century in libraries says one. Well I know the Dewey Decimal system says the other (yeah, we had to google it too).
You don’t like Jews! You don’t like Muslims! Grrr. Trump lackey! Communist! Where the Russia dossier? Omergad you gone break up NATO!
Yes, it’s not an election folks. It’s a peaceful revolution. The question is which way, and frankly we remain undecided.
Thankfully there’s still two weeks to go, but both candidates have a strong case to make and whatever the polls say, this can go either way.
Because the country right now is probably looking at both of them and wondering what future Britain will look like. Many of them might make the decision on the day itself. And those that have decided have probably not quite decided for the election has only just began as far as most are concerned.
Where this space is concerned, neither offers much directly. And though you’d think Boris is pro-crypto, we made that mistake with Trump in assuming so too, and thus we are not going to make the same mistake again.
In the absence of any indication Boris is pro-business, let alone pro crypto, there is little reason to not think of the possibility an FCA under Boris might be as friendly as the SEC, meaning not at all.
Likewise while we can assume plenty for Corbyn, it may be the case that because he has to prove himself he turns out to be very pro-business.
That we have to speculate is a problem, bringing us back to that Citizens’ Assembly which is necessary. Corbyn has promised one, albeit limited to constitutional matters, but since it’s a very new thing, obviously you’d start small.
That promise might sway some voters as it is one thing which stands out considerably, and it is one thing that can protect liberties beyond five weeks.
Meaning this is a real election, with real choices, which really matter for who takes charge has the power to decide even war and peace itself.
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