After much wind and rain the sun greets Britain at the beginning of a new era which is to transform this country.
A decisive decision has been made, with Boris Johnson sweeping the country blue. That means on the 31st of January, the United Kingdom will leave the European Union just as a new year and a new decade begins.
That makes it a very British revolution, and a sight of relief up and down as a clear mandate is given.
Whatever voters may have thought the day before and however they may have swang, on the voting day itself the decision was clear.
Conservatives were energized and very much on a campaigning mode, while Labour was pretty much silent.
Labour has seen its worst performance in nearly half a century, while Conservatives have seen their first landslide since the 80s.
Boris has won and he has won bigly. What will he do with this victory?
Emmanuel Macron, the French President, apparently likes Boris. He has a great vision, Macron once said, with it not too clear what that vision is, but we think we can guess.
Europe has to unite, with Germany and France already starting to merge politically. UK’s exit gets out of their way, with Britain looking to the rest of the world too.
However, the French and British army are also merging. There are French troops in London, for example, and presumably likewise British troops in France.
That will probably continue because both France and UK need the capability to take action on their own – in this case together – without having to rely on US or Nato etc.
That curve at the top of Europe so creates the foundation for the rest which can join the political merger and in the same style the military merger too.
Meaning Britain is leaving but probably with a deep and special partnership, words which Boris couldn’t use during the election but now he has a full mandate. Meaning neither the Farages, nor the remainers have any means to pressure him effectively.
That reminds us, Europe will within a few weeks gladly wave goodbye to Farage as a new dawn begins.
Uniting the Kingdom
The election result itself goes quite some way towards uniting the kingdom. Remainers now don’t quite have a leg to stand on. The remainer-in-chief, Jo Swinson which led Libdems, has been voted out. Britain is leaving, and that can be better both for UK and for EU.
Whether Scotland is leaving too is an important question. They’ve almost all voted SNP which wants another referendum on Scottish independence, but first we all have to wait and see just what sort of Brexit this is.
For another year, there’s a transition period where economic, but not political, arrangements continue as they are now. During that period they will negotiate what sort of arrangements there will be thereafter.
Before such deal is reached the Scottish people wouldn’t know what exactly they’d be leaving. After it is reached, they probably wouldn’t want another Hadrian wall with polls suggesting for now the majority there is to stay.
Likewise in Northern Ireland any suggested arrangements might not apply depending on what is negotiated in the next 12 months.
So at least for that honeymoon period the country will probably just wait and see what Boris does with these fantastic results.
Lifting the Economy
With the Brexit argument now settled and out of the way, the certainty might by itself lift the economy a bit, but how much depends in part on how much access to the single market can be negotiated.
Then there’s bigger access to US markets, and other markets, with the potential there for a good steering to create a boom.
The only promise Boris has made is to invest £100 billion in infrastructure. That’s however perhaps because he wanted to play the election very safe, so what he really plans to do won’t be known until the Queen’s speech.
There will be some tax cuts, but nothing like Trump’s tax cuts when he took over. Instead it’s a fairly modest circa £2 billion or so, with it unlikely to have much of a noticeable effect for some time.
Yet these are just the safe policies. With a full mandate he can now also pursue the policies he actually wants.
Deregulation might be one of them. At least that’s what Labour accuses them of. Meaning hopefully FCA will take a different view than SEC in regards to start-ups fundraising through crypto-tokens.
London is a big hub and can be the financial capital of the world, but that needs some oiling after May’s terrible premiership.
Starting with laxing restrictions on fundraising can be a pretty good start to a more optimistic London.
A New Britania
There’s plenty of reason to be hopeful and cheerful of the new decade. A liberal conservative is in charge, and with a landslide.
He believes in free trade, in the international rule of law, is pro-immigration, but controlled immigration, is very cosmopolitan, quite charming, and is basically the embodiment of Brits, starting with his hair style.
That means he can bring some optimism, and bring some confidence to the economy, and can perhaps even ease a bit social tensions, but whether he will is the big question.
That’s to be seen as a new year soon begins and with it a new era for the United Kingdom.