It is almost precisely two years ago that the bitcoin bear market began with the currency still down some 70% since.
That’s better than eth, which is down 90%, and for this year bitcoin has more than doubled, up 120%, while eth is barely up 70%.
Bitcoin Cash interestingly has beaten them both, with the biggest gainer being Binance’s BNB stock like token. While the biggest loser out of the main ones is Ripple.
Ripple labs has been selling and selling this year, with no one quite knowing what they doing with all these billions, but generally if you invested at the beginning of the year you should be up in most main cryptos.
That’s because there was a mini bull-run of sorts, sending bitcoin with some speed to $14,000 from $3,000.
That bull run was followed by a halvening in price since summer, down about 50% to now $7,000.
The big question so being is this $7,000 now considerable support going by past action?
As can be seen above, bitcoin sidewayed a lot at this price range last year from spring to autumn.
It also sidewayed a bit when it was going up for three weeks in 2017, giving three big green and red candles.
Meaning this is a very important line to hold as it may well be the just about survival line for miners:
The relationship between price and hash remains a bit of a mystery and is actually quite complicated because some might be mining even at a cost just because they want bitcoin. Think Iran sanctions or maybe someone who wants super clean blocks.
But after rising for much of the year, the hashrate has fallen a bit and seems somewhat volatile.
That suggests as a for-profit endeavor, mining might not quite be meeting costs currently. Plenty are probably even mining at a loss.
So this $7k level is very important because logically you’d think miners would withdraw supply at this stage and try to survive on fiat.
Obviously supply and demand is the equation, so if supply is reduced then you need less demand to maintain the price or for it to increase.
Here we then get the crazy, but brief, bull runs. As suppliers think price might rise, they withdraw bitcoin from the market. As there is less bitcoin to buy, price rises faster. Then that all turns with a rush to sell as that withheld supply is flooded into the market.
Now which of those two scenarios we might see is for time to say, but bitcoin appears to be at a very critical stage this Christmas price wise.
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