The chain-split of a chain-split has now overtaken the smart contracts world computer in price, but not in market cap.
BSV moved upwards once the halvening became only 90 days away, jumping by some 60% as can be seen above.
Likewise Bitcoin Cash rose from $230 to $280 with both expected to have the halvening around the same time.
BCH overtook ethereum even in market cap once during the hight of the bubble in 2017, while BSV overtook it in price for the first time back in November 2018 during the mini-fomo trading frenzy shortly after it was created.
Both then plunged, as did eth, but BSV was kind of written off as was BCH for a few months following the chain-split.
Eth thus maintained a price above BSV, but now this coin has overtaken it again.
Eth is now just 10% of bitcoin’s market cap which is probably an all time low since it became relevant.
BCH itself once had nearly the current market cap of bitcoin for a brief period in 2017, but now it’s at “just” $5 billion.
BSV is seemingly nearly having more trading volumes than its market cap in some magic of sorts, with many of these volumes probably fake.
Yet it has risen the most out of the top coins, with all three – BCH, BSV and BTC – kind of copy clones of each other differing only on their approach to the capacity vs decentralization trade-off with BTC being the most conservative, BCH the moderate, while BSV is out there gigablocks.
Since they’re copy clones, they have the same monetary policy, and thus all three are to have a 50% reduction in inflation and new supply.
That will bring monetary inflation down to just under 2% a year, so standing at the fiat inflation level for the first time since bitcoin’s invention.
BCH is to go first apparently, but BSV is very close in time so they’re kind of jumping to this new world together.
Bitcoin is then to have its first halvening since it went mainstream in awareness about a month after BCH and BSV.
That is expected in May, with nothing quite happening except bitcoin explorers will say miners were given 6.25 bitcoin per block, instead of 12.5.
It’s algorithmic, the code just does it with no one able to do anything about it as bitcoin becomes more rare.
Regarding price speculation, the same points that were made last time will be made again, condensing to one side saying it is priced-in, the other side saying nah.
In the short term, it can go up, down, or stay flat. In the long term however there is a change in economics so price will either go up more than it would have otherwise, or go down less than it would have otherwise, or if it stays flat it does so while otherwise it might have been going down.
Just which one of those three, depends on demand, but there’s a change in new supply so that itself could affect demand.
There’s obviously a reasonable argument to be made that since this change is known, that effect on demand has already occurred, but this pricing-in theory assumes a perfect world of all knowing actors who robotically attribute value.
And even if that is assumed, there is still a change in supply which has not yet quite occurred so that reduction of supply pressure is probably not yet reflected.
In addition this halvening is somewhat special because new supply falls to the inflation levels targeted for fiat money, making bitcoin a different sort of asset than it has been so far at a comparative monetary level.