Ethereum’s value against bitcoin has finally began rising this week with some big jumps as pictured above.
Ethereum’s price against bitcoin increased by 10%, up from circa 17 mBTC to more than 19.
That indicates ethereum’s price against the dollar has risen more than that of bitcoin even while both see considerable gains this week with eth rising 20% against USD and 9% for BTC.
When zoomed out on daily candles, the picture looks a bit different and quite interesting.
There’s the flippening fomo during summer 2017. The dull of autumn and early winter as bitcoin roars. The anger of eth in January 2018 and then there’s only a brief respite during spring of that year in a dead cat bounce.
Since then, ethereum’s price against bitcoin has only seen downwards, but for months now it has been pretty stable at current levels since summer last year.
So the real news here is not that the ratio rises, but that it doesn’t fall. The latter would probably even make a better title, but this longest ever period of stability might perhaps suggest there isn’t much room down there.
Upwards of course there’s plenty of room, even 10x, with the big question being whether this is a movement that remains within that stupendously long straight line, or the beginning of an upwards trend.
Only time can answer that one, and there are arguments for both. In bitcoin’s favor there’s halvening, and that brings a big drop in inflation which thus significantly changes the fundamentals.
Yet at least narratively there’s been an even bigger change for eth as the plan now is to discard the miners completely maybe next year or in two years, as opposed to keeping them in a hybrid Proof of Work (PoW) and Proof of Stake (PoS) mess.
This streamlining makes a lot of things simpler and far more importantly reduces inflation from a current circa 5% to basically 0.
Things are in flux in eth so the above is probably tentative, but the PoS boneless testnets are now out with stakers rolling on it, so if this thing works, then there isn’t much of a reason to keep miners around, and if the network is run only by stakers, then 0.22% total inflation is enough to secure the network.
The full testnet, with bones and everything, should now hopefully go out in a couple of months. That’s when we get an even better idea of what the skeleton new blockchain will look like.
This considerable proposed change in base economics might be one reason for the recent rise in the ratio, with another one perhaps being front-running calculations in as far as eth has fallen a lot more than bitcoin so perhaps it has more room to rise.
Then there’s the whole defi innovation going on which probably won’t make it to bitcoin until Blockstream is kicked out because they’ll want all that on the centralized custodian blockchain which they control, Liquid.
By the time bitcoin gets to it in any event, eth’s open space would probably be miles ahead with innovation in bitcoin more… in punkness would be a good way of describing it.
Finally among many other things worthy of mentioning, ethereum has noticed Boris Johnson’s promise to get gigabit internet to the villages of Engaland, so they’re kind of not-raising the blocksize in their now simplified sharding plans.
Also worthy of mentioning, the eth1 maintainer who soon might be far less busy since that chain is to be discarded, might find more time to focus on pruning which is a very difficult but potentially an actual long term solution to the problem of ever growing blockchain data.
Meaning one potentially can see some light at the end of the tunnel, but time will tell.