It’s the last Friday of the month. That means CME’s bitcoin futures expire tomorrow with a big question this time being whether the usual price fall during the bear market will now turn into a price rise as bitcoin hopefully moves out of the bear.
As you might know for months bitcoin has fallen like clockwork around two days before futures expire, but that didn’t quite repeat in December and it hasn’t this month either.
This time instead it has spiked, but that could be more due to an outbreak in China or it could be due to a reversal of the effects futures are now having on bitcoin.
The above chart is quite interesting because it looks like a huge cup and handle on the daily.
We can see there the iron support at circa $7,000, with a breakout that meets some resistance at $9,000, which was then taken this week.
The theory goes that flat line for more than a month shows bears were exhausted. So bulls charge, but bears try their luck again at circa $9,000, with bulls seemingly sensing weakness so they charge again.
If this does play out as a cup and handle then it might test $14,000 again, but nothing is sure about prices so it could easily fall.
Whether CME futures will play a role either way remains to be seen, with the Wall Street giant exchanging more than half a billion a day in fiat settled bitcoin representative contracts.
If there is any influence it would be indirect through hedging in the spot market and the like. That indirect influence was negative during the bear, but now it remains to be seen whether it will turn positive.