Stocks Plunge, Oil Falls, Gold Jumps, Bitcoin ??? – Trustnodes

Stocks Plunge, Oil Falls, Gold Jumps, Bitcoin ???


Dow Jones has fallen by some 3.53% at the time of writing amid concerns over a new strand of flu.

Its transmission rate is estimated to be around 2.5, meaning like the flu it makes its round during high winter.

Children seem to be resistant to this strand of flu. The more elderly, the riskier it can get, like with everything else healthwise.

Dow’s mighty bull run on monthly candles, Feb 2020, Chart from Tradingview

Dow has fallen this month by some 6%, half of it today, as markets react to panicky measures over some flu that includes Austria quickly closing its border with Italy.

It’s unlikely to help much Austria because it’s flu, how on earth do you contain flu, because a new study by Imperial says:

“We estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially leaving sources of human-to-human transmission unchecked (63% and 73% undetected based on comparisons with Singapore only and with Singapore, Finland, Nepal, Belgium, Sweden, India, Sri Lanka, and Canada, respectively).

Undoubtedly, the exported cases vary in the severity of their clinical symptoms, making some cases more difficult to detect than others.

However, some countries have detected significantly fewer than would have been expected based on the volume of flight passengers arriving from Wuhan City, China.”

UK scores a win for zero flights from Wuhan, yet somehow they still got some cases because obviously this great power can’t just be left out of stuff.

US should have a lot more cases based on this study on flights from Wuhan, however interestingly another study again from Imperial says this flu is a lot less severe outside of China. Most likely because it affects smokers more.

It says in China 18% of people with this new flu might need treatment, while outside it’s just an estimated 1.2-5.6%.

For normal flu it’s a bit less, so we’re not fully cancelling this episode of fearmongering, except maybe in UK where 8 out of 9 have recovered.

Why? Rain maybe clears the air, while in Italy for some reason the area surrounding Milan is seemingly getting this flu. Maybe because it’s been very cold in northern Italy recently, so people get a cold and flu too.

In Iran the holy city of Qom is at the centre of this new flu season, even though the Imperial study estimating how this might spread missed them too.

Gold massive cup and handle? Feb 2020
Gold massive cup and handle? Feb 2020

Now that’s a chart of a very nice cup. There is no handle yet, or maybe there is at $1,500.

This is rising as people scramble to find a place to park their stocks profits, with useless gold a favorite for some reason while BRO oil is down 5%.

Bitcoin hasn’t quite reacted today perhaps because it’s a bit concerned with that big $10,000 psychological line which it has crossed 100 times already, but is more sidewaying as you’d expect after a considerable rise in previous weeks.

Bitcoin does not quite correlate with either gold or stocks, but it has established itself as a safe haven asset, although clearly not very directly.

Or maybe bitcoin knows something other markets don’t. It’s truly global, and it’s ordinary people buying and selling it rather than big Wall Street ivory towers.

So perhaps what bitcoin knows is that this flu is kind of drifting off in China where seemingly they’re now lowering the fearmongering after people got a bit angery, but fear is still strong with this one as shown by some Chinese organizers cancelling an ethereum event in Vienna.

As they’re now shivering less in the face of flu in China, maybe they’re not turning as much towards bitcoin, but Europe and USA is now maybe getting a bit of that fear festival going on, so these two might cancel out, thus perhaps explaining why bitcoin is sidewaying.

That said this is a bit of a strong flu, so caution in cleaning hands and all that is very desirable, but unless you’re very elderly then we’d say just get on with normal life.

At the end of the day flu and winter come together so they should hopefully go together as well, with some mainstream media arguably quite irresponsible in some of its reporting of this flu.

In addition there’s a lot of propaganda going on too, especially in China where CCP has been accused of using footage of a 9 months pregnant nurse treating this flu as a propaganda tool.

What might not be propaganda however is the effect of this scaremongering on the economy as people might naturally want to be a bit cautious because information is sorely lacking or is bogged down under sensationalist headlines.

The economy was already slowing down in China so now they might have a good excuse for why it might do worse, while in US Trump has staked everything on the economy so printing might intensify.

In Europe they need a strong continental figure. Empro Macaroni might maybe provide it but mainly on foreign policy and/or vision. On economy, ECB is doing a terrible job with their 0% interest rates starving banks from profitable lending while the central bank just straight gives them cash.

They also lack a European stock exchange which ECB can pump like FED does with freshly minted euros, and they also lack a continental financial regulator.

So their economy is not doing as good as it could and should, but they keep talking and talking about these reforms so maybe one day they’ll actually do them.

On a final note maybe we’re wrong in underplaying this flu, but hopefully we’re right that the zombie capocalips that mainstream media propaganda wants us to believe will hopefully turn into yet another two minutes of hate/fear nonsense.


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