Joe the whale has made two astonishing trades in the last three months that have correctly predicted bitcoin’s price movement when the trend was in a different direction.
He came to our attention in December when a long of bitcoin with borrowed dollars sent him -$25 million.
That’s while price was falling, but Joe seemed unphased, taunting bears on twitter while seemingly being confident the price was to go in his direction.
As it did a few weeks later when his big red turned into considerable green with some pointing out the price did not move when he opened his massive 20,000 bitcoins long weeks prior to the price moving in his direction.
Now he is $15 million in green (pictured above) after shorting at around $10,000 a few weeks ago.
Bitcoin’s price on January 28th was $9,500. Around then he goes short, but price rises instead of falls, going to $10,500.
We think he went short with about 8,000 bitcoin, worth a cool $70 million, because they may have slipped somewhere:
So it seems this whale began acquiring his short position on or around 15th of January when price was at just under $9,000.
Then he closes his huge position on the 21st of February, but bitcoin’s price doesn’t move at all. So what on earth is going on?
Paolo Ardoino is the CTO of Bitfinex, the exchange of choice for ostensible bitcoin maxis and maybe drug cartels, although probably unknowingly so but they seem a bit lax with their AML/KYC procedures.
There have been calls for an audit of this exchange since forever, but none has been provided ever, with that episode drifting off but now eyebrows are probably being raised about this Joe guy.
How is this person or entity predicting so well the price weeks ahead and far more importantly, how is he opening huge positions without any effect on the price?
Equally important, how is he closing such positions again with no apparent effect?
The conclusion obviously can only be one: Bitfinex is reporting incorrect data on longs and shorts – at least regarding the timing of when longs or shorts were opened or closed – for there is no way you can close a $70 million short within an hour without any effect on the price whatever.
If that is the case then there might be collusion and if there is collusion then there’s only one explanation on how this “Joe” seems to know what price will do and that is the speculation that perhaps Bitfinex is trading with an open book against its own customers.