Is the worst over, is the question in everyone’s mind and going by a fall across the board on the percentage increase in new cases, it might well be.
USA and UK are at the peak of this, but the speed of increase in new cases in America has dropped from 40% to 25% as of the end of March. While in Italy it has dropped to below 10%.
In Italy this is pretty much over as everyone there probably got through this now. Spain, France and Germany are around same level, but Spain for some reason is worse hit. In China they’re out partying now while in South Korea they never stopped.
US seems to be most behind, but alongside UK they’re probably coming out of the peak right now.
That means the peak for hospitals in London and New York would be on Monday, but it depends just how much the over 70s complied with the advice to stay at home before the curfew on the 30th of March.
There’s a lag between testing and it being confirmed, with the key useful stat really being hospital admissions.
That’s because we can’t really know how many people got this prior to anti-bodies tests which are still in development.
The current tests, sometime with huge fake positives or negatives, only shows if someone has it right now. Making it useless except for general data knowledge because even if they were 100% correct, someone might be over it just before they got the test, or someone might catch it maybe even during the test or a few hours after.
Hospital admissions on the other hand are pretty certain. Someone either is or isn’t in hospital. But these too lag by five days in addition to there being problems with these tests.
Yet corporate media only seems to care about confirmed numbers – which unless they’re in hospital doesn’t say much – and about deaths which lag by 14 to 28 days and sometime even more.
Looking back, it appears quite clear pretty much all governments have taken a herd immunity approach, knowingly or unknowingly.
We all know about the initial coverup in China, but for about two months basically they just allowed this to spread and then curfew.
Likewise in Italy, this came in January, then the curfew in March. For UK it was probably in January too, with curfew in late March.
An Oxford study estimated probably 50% of the population has caught this, and that might have been an intentional strategy because there isn’t really any other way of dealing with this save for some vaccine or cure.
Catching it is apparently itself a vaccine, or at least it was with the Spanish flu. A flu that had a second wave when according to a study, those who got it in the first one, didn’t get it in the second.
That second wave for the Spanish flu was far worse than the first one, and the reason might be that in the first wave it was limited to army barracks, while in the second wave it spread to the entire civilian population.
The study, and this is an old study from 2008, strongly recommends drastic measures are not taken in case of a mild new flu because it might come back in the second wave with vengance.
So you want to naturally immunize the population by basically going on as normal and catching the first mild version just like all the other flus they catch every year.
What’s so different about this Chinese flu that they’ve taken such drastic measures? Well, once 50% or maybe 70% of the population got it, there’s general immunity so this won’t spread next time or not so quickly to demographics that are significantly affected, hence the two to three weeks curfews to allow those affected to basically go through it for 14 days or so, preventing further infections and potential deaths which at this point may be uneccessary.
Half of those that have died in UK are over 85. The government has lied, and openly so, by putting down as Chinese flu cases that are from one or more other serious illnesses.
Yet on the other hand they might say they wouldn’t have departed if this didn’t give them a push, and there’s only so much healthcare capacity so if left freely it could have been dangerous not just to very, very old people, but also otherwise fit individuals who might not be getting treatment as resources are depleted.
Still, once this hit herd immunity, as you would think it has done with even the Prime Minister catching this, you’d think it would have stopped by itself with the current show on TV for example being lagging theatre.
Do These Curfews Even Work?
We understand some have lost loved ones so we don’t mean disrespect by calling it a ‘show,’ but 350,000 fines were issued in France during this curfew.
These fines were issued by policemen and women, who obviously are not immune, who have to go back to their family, passing it on to everyone there.
We then have all the ‘essential workers,’ same story. The doctors and nurses not only get this but spread it to the most vulnerable group, people in hospital with underlying conditions.
In France, Italy and Spain about one million fines have been issued. Someone gotta pay for the bailouts you’d think, but more importantly that’s a huge number of people that got caught. Imagine all those that didn’t get caught.
People have generally complied, however, but the progression of this seems to correspond far more to the weather than these measures.
Yet logically maybe it would make sense to try and minimize the spread once you’ve got herd immunity, but there’s no estimation of the chances someone didn’t get it and so didn’t spread it inhouse while under curfew, and thus there is no proof these even work.
It could well be the herd immunity that done it or the weather, with these projections of a trillion dead maybe not accounting for either, but just extrapolating like they can predict anything.
The question however is why would the government lie about the cause of these deaths, and why would they curfew for this pandemic only and not for any other that has been somewhat similar?
US for example is accusing China of lying, but if the Chinese government can lie, why can’t ours?
In China their media is probably saying US’ accusation is just for internal consumption. We all know how this rubbish works.
But why curfew? Well, the war on terrr is over now so gotta have something to keep people scared. It’s war on… invisibility now. Well, more… you know, we all know.
Another reason might be that it has clearly been a very effective way of ending revolts across the globe. Maybe we’ve all forgotten now but the fist of revolution was raised in Lebanon, theatrical guillotines appeared in Paris, the whole climate change movement had people glue themselves to tube trains in London. And of course the whole free Hong Kong thing.
Governments maybe got scared, and so they thought to scare us instead, with corporate media keenly obliging as it thrushes on our face those awful images for which they probably can be sued on under the tort of negligence for causing stress disorder.
Rather than addressing people’s concerns, governments sometime get guns out. Machiavelli still rules. They don’t want to be loved, they want to be feared.
And hence the show, the theatre, the spectacle. Their warning, after the people warned them during the global protests.
Right or wrong is a different matter. We do generally have great peace and great prosperity, there can be improvements but obviously incrementally.
However, what happens to Hong Kong now? Lebanon was already bankrupt, now it is what? Clean air and water might be off the agenda for now, but presumably it’s still a concern. The grievances of the French, which basically amounts to discrimination by law in favor of the rich and that the workers are being taxed more and more while capital isn’t, obviously won’t be something that just goes away.
That our governments can openly be authoritarian isn’t something everyone didn’t know. That they choose to so willingly lie is curious. That they’ve wiped up the media into a frenzy with those most awful images, is interesting. That some of the ‘social’ media now plays along or is forced to, is controlled, is something new.
But that they chose to do all this is a bit surprising because it’s not even keeping pretenses. It’s more a show of force against their own taxpayers.
Hence these bureaucrats keep telling us this might go on for months, but just as with the Iraq War, no one is really fooled.
There is herd immunity, so there shouldn’t be a second wave. The peak has passed now, so this should be over by easter.
Afterwards, governments will need to regain at least a bit of trust because 15th century then unknown ‘advice’ does not necessarily work in the 21st century.