Bitcoin has overtaken $7,000 for the first time since early march with the vast majority of cryptos up 5%, while ethereum seems to be rising a bit more than the rest, up 7%.
An uptrend seems to have formed with bitcoin rising since the beginning of the month from just under $6,000 to now above $7,000.
Stocks have turned green too. Footsie has been rising by about 2%, while the rest seem up by about 4%.
Footsie so lagging a bit because the Prime Minister Boris Johnson had to be admitted to hospital with it unclear whether this was super pre-caution, but there is proven treatment through plasma.
Boris’ hospital admission embodies what is now probably the peak of new cases in hospital with reports in London they’ve started to plateau.
Matt Hancock, the British Health Secretary, has stated hospitals are managing, the situation is under control.
Total numbers in hospital might keep rising in the next few days, while the percentage of new admission should start to begin falling.
That suggests London is starting to turn the tide, with self-compliance important for the next few days so that we can maybe start enjoying a bit more next week.
In Germany new cases are also falling, while in Italy and Spain this should be over on the ground. New York is a couple of days behind, but they should be starting to come out of this too.
Comparing Italy and Spain with Germany and England shows some huge contrast in how this has been handled.
Italy was first, so from the start that put them at a disadvantage, while Spain had a bit more time yet they both were quickly overwhelmed.
The reason might perhaps be that in Italy especially it wasn’t managed well in as far as non essential workers were still able to go to work even during what then would have been the peak, with workplaces there closed only around 20th of March or so.
In Germany what they’ll probably be remembered for is reporting the real actual fatality numbers which stands at 1% of confirmed cases, with the real number where the general population is concerned probably being 0.01% or even less, not least because half are asymptomatic and therefore don’t show in the current test.
All other governments have basically openly lied to the people by putting down individuals with serious illnesses as passing from this new flu.
That’s the case for UK too, but what UK did differently are a few things. First, they counted as confirmed cases only people admitted in hospitals, so everyone would get a real idea of what is going on at the NHS.
As most get just a common cold, reported confirmed data from some countries, or mass testing as in Germany, just confused the situation because while those data might be interesting for those planning, where the population is concerned it doesn’t show what actually matters. How serious is this, how many are there in hospital, how is that changing.
UK also had the luxury of more time. This spreads best at 8 degrees, which for UK was three months after it began spreading. While for Italy and Spain it was just two months.
So we’d theorize that this began spreading in London in January somewhat slowly, and thus some people got immunity gradually, and this slow spread process was for a longer period while in Italy they got to the probable beginning of the peak very quickly in late February.
The other thing for UK was the government decision to do daily briefings, which then US began doing too and everyone else.
That’s important because good communication in a foggy situation can make significant difference.
Then there was the careful planing to ensure most self compliance during the peak, which was probably mid to late last week.
So there was a more gradual transition, and as they kept emphasizing, perhaps they did get the timing right with the fall in traffic at its peak when probably it was the peak of this as well.
London therefore may get out of the situation better than most, although France and Germany has been handling it fine too, with self compliance almost total in London, and it continues to be with it probably to go on for much of this week too. If that remains the case, next week hopefully people can then start relaxing a bit.
That’s the biggest question and what may more fully determine just who has been handling this best.
Hanckock said this herd immunity thing was “nonsense,” but that’s maybe more so that people don’t go out because hopefully London is still kind of going through that process and any new cases are now undesirable.
Long established science, however, before all this began, suggests that if there’s a wave of new flu you should let it run because it acts as a vaccine when it returns in the second wave, which could be worse.
With this particular new flu, it spreads too quickly. So you can imagine if there are 10 million cases for example, it becomes 20 million in just five days, and then 40 million if its left to run.
So that leads to too many cases at the same time, which is why they wanted to spread it out to slow down new cases and then to stop it fully.
Doing the calculations it is probable at least 50% have gone through this in the past three months, so UK should now have heard immunity, but there are still people going through this who might not even know they have it, so at least for this week full self compliance should hopefully give us a better easter.
Presuming there is herd immunity, then there might not even be a second wave. If there isn’t herd immunity, then these lockdowns would come under significant questioning.
There probably is though, with Hancock meaning more that the idea they want people to get it is ‘nonsense,’ rather than the concept itself which is more a matter of fact.
So we’re hopefully starting to come out of this now with just a few more days to go to get that curve down fully, after which we’ll have to talk a lot about this exit strategy because people will probably start getting bored next week.