The United Kingdom is coming out of the pandemic according to Dame Angela Ruth McLean of Oxford University acting as Deputy Chief Government Scientific Advisor.
In the latest press briefing McLean, pictured making the curve gesture, stated in some parts of the United Kingdom the curve “has really started to flatten.”
New infections are “beginning to get towards a flat curve,” she said, while intensive care (ICU) admissions “have started to flatten.”
There has been only an increase of “just 4%” to intensive care units, she said, with that being the most important measure because it is the most limited resource.
Meaning British hospitals are managing very well, with predictions by Imperial University seemingly being no where near reality to the point on social media there was a quib that “the pandemic models are as accurate as the election ones.”
The chiefs however attributed this to the curfews which led to a 94% footfall in late March as compared to early March.
Death figures have a long reporting lag, McLean said, both in regards to individuals needing days or weeks in hospital and also in regards to their official reporting taking about a week.
Making ICU admissions the most important data, and also hospital admissions which total 19,000, about the same as a normal flu season.
Neither of the two chiefs nor the new Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, wanted to comment in any way about the potential easing of the curfew, with Sunak only saying there will be a Cobra meeting tomorrow.
“The modelers come to SAGE, and then sage puts that together, and we send it over to our politicians,” McLean said.
SAGE being the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. So basically the decision to house arrest everyone has been made based on some guy playing a computer game where you insert different presumptions and through simple maths get to see what happens if this or if that.
The crucial problem of course being they have no idea what is ‘this’ or what is ‘that’ because they don’t or didn’t know the key fact of what is the mortality rate.
Something that you would think can easily be revealed by comparing mortality rates of March 2020 with that of March 2019, which most likely would show it is about 1,000, or “just a 4% increase.”
Our politicians however have taken the very convenient route of absolving any responsibility whatever in basically telling us all they are just following orders, or as they put it, they are “following science.”
When of course we all know science begins with a hypothesis and with experimentation, not with ‘what if’ dreaming of what might or could potentially perhaps happen if we don’t lock ourself.
In addition that ‘what if’ has been only one way, with these models not considering any what ifs of locking ourself, especially in regards to probable significant spikes in drug or alcohol abuse or many, many other things.
Boris Johnson is now getting well apparently, “sitting on his bed” according to Rishi rish, so making it a good time to speculate he is perhaps engaging in theatre as they probably worried self compliance might evaporate this week.
Yet most probably agree with the chief stating “this week is a really important week,” because the peak of new cases was probably around the middle of last week, and the peak of hospital admissions around the beginning of this week, so now it is probably falling and fairly quickly. So people are self complying to let it fall.
Next week however calculations might start to change as this is taking a significant toll and therefore the government should start to engage in proper science, instead of Nostradamus predictions albeit with computer code that is inputed by the modern Nostradamus wannabes.
That is, the only raw data is hospital and ICU admissions. Therefore, you can experiment by allowing say 20% to get back to work or 30% and/or those that work in non crammed places, like car mechanics or fruit pickers.
Then we can see what effect that has on hospital admissions, and so actually follow science instead of ‘what if’ predictions.
Obviously that might have risks but now knowing what we know about this, there are also significant risks in not engaging in actual science and they may be far bigger risks.
Ultimately these are political decisions involving tradeoffs, not 1+1 factual decisions because they don’t have even the basic fact of what is the mortality rate.
“This is all, all of our money which has to be paid back at some point.” Rishi rish said in regards to the huge spending that the government has embarked upon.
And who is going to pay all that money? Certainly not his billionaire uncle who can now borrow at near 0% while the rest of us have to pay credit card interest rates of 20%.
Nor is aristocratic Boris going to pay for it with his Bullingdon club. No, those that were already sinking are going to pay for it and in the name of ‘saving lives’ many of them are going to be sank fully.
The curfew must end next week, and if they wish to say otherwise they have to give proper science, not slogans. They have to give proper evidence any of these curfews work when there is evidence they don’t, instead of playing Nostradamus.
They also have to explain why they’ve gone against long established scientific consensus that states if there is a mild case of new flu, it is best to let it run its course rather than risk a far more dangerous second wave.
And it is very mild as we all know they are fully lying in attributing fatalities to this new flu even when it is just a ‘probable’ and just a ‘contributing’ factor. And even then half of fatalities are 85+.
What if this mutates next season and attacks healthy young people, even children, and by long established science if it does it would be only because of these curfews.
Why has Imperial not considered that ‘what if’ in their models when it is long established it is a real risk?
This curfew must end next week. For as much as we love our grandpas, we do wish we live as long as them and because many of our brothers and sisters in their prime are in real danger due to this atrocious blunder.
Rishi rish and these dames and these chiefs and these aristocrats maybe don’t see that, seeing only instead nonsense predictions based on no facts, or even common sense, but it is time for proper science, not what ifs, it is time to ease restrictions for easter and see what happens, not what some idiot might imagine could potentially happen.