Ethereum longs have seen a big spike to a new very all time high and more importantly it all seems a bit interesting as there appears to be a relation between eth and bitcoin longs.
Some 300,000 eth (pictured above on daily candles) was added to longs on April 10th and this is just on Bitfinex. That’s currently worth about $47 million.
Also on April 10th about 5,000 BTC was taken off longs on the unregulated and largely non compliant exchange. That’s worth about $35 million.
Interesting in itself, but when we look at weekly candles it becomes quite clear there is something going on here.
What we have for bitcoin is a huge drop from ₿45,000 to less than ₿23,000, meaning a cool $150 million in longs has been closed as measured at the current price.
The actual price would be different because some of these would have been closed at $10,000 with this drop beginning on the 20th of February.
There’s a big drop on the 8th of March as well, just a day before Milan lockdown, on the 13th of March and then yesterday.
Shorts on the other hand seem to be a bit more sideway both for bitcoin and eth, while eth longs have been jumping since February 25th.
There was also a huge spike for eth between the 11th and 12th of March and then the jump yesterday.
So we’ll start from about 600,000 eth, this has risen to ◊1.4 million now, making it $126 million worth of eth added in the past two months.
This is sufficiently close to the amount closed for bitcoin during the same period, so is it one person and more importantly is it Bitfinex itself?
Are these reported longs and shorts even real? Bitfinex is a centralized database which has not been audited so they can put one trillion eth down if they want, in their own database. Just like Fed has put down $2.5 trillion, and for ‘realz’ this time.
Or there’s something someone or maybe a group knows as eth’s ratio had a big jump in its value against bitcoin, but that was on April 6th.
As stated above these long movements were on April 10th, not 6th, but again we go back to their database as we have suspected for some time they report longs and shorts after the trade has been executed and about 4 days after sounds about right, instead of instantly reporting them.
That big lag in time can of course be a significant competitive information advantage, but why has this person or group so clearly moved from bitcoin to eth?
Obviously the first thing to suspect is that there may be some news coming as we don’t think its just pure speculation because bitcoin has the halvening soon.
So there isn’t anything known to make someone have such a one sided bet and so bigly, in our view anyway.
However, it’s not clear whether the wallet functionality in their app will be available to all users or to just those that subscribe to ethtrader.
In any event reddit users learned about bitcoin in 2013, and they probably know about eth, so just a wallet address is not a big deal but if people can make some pennies from reddit tokens running on eth, then presumably a lot of people would start looking into this global computer with funny muneh.
So we can’t fully discount maybe it is reddit that dun it, but if we had to bet we’d say it’s probably something else which maybe we’ll learn of on Monday, or maybe this all is actually pure speculation with so much money and in such a decisive way or of course it’s just manipulation. Why don’t we ask you actually: