Dominic Raab, the new British Prime Minister has stated they expect the peak to last three months even as new hospital admissions have fallen across the country and have dropped by 5% in London.
Extending the curfew, Raab said Boris Johnson previously said it would take three months to go through the peak and that is broadly still the outline.
That might explain why the British government does not want to even begin talking about how they plan to get out of the curfew.
At the same time Raab made it official that R is below 1, meaning an infected person passes it on to less than one other person, which basically translates to this is not spreading any more.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, said the view of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) is that R has fallen below 1, it is somewhere between 0.5 to 1.
Before the curfew was announced they stated the aim was to bring R below 1. Now that this aim has been achieved, as well as the goal of maintaining NHS capacity way above demand, they’re moving the goalpost with it unclear now just what exactly is their aim because at the general public level this has ended as it is no longer spreading.
Even hospital admissions, which lag by 15 days, are starting to fall now, with Vallance stating 90% of those departed had at least one serious illness, and usually had two or more.
So these may well be very old individuals who may have passed from ordinary flu, with the trajectory of this pretty much similar to the flu and according to data from Sweden, where they have not imposed a lockdown, the mortality rate appears to be similar to the flu too.
Making this an extreme over-reaction that risks a collapse into communism as the government basically ends the free market and ends our freedoms with suggestions this would be the worst economic collapse since the 1700s if it continues for three months as seems to be the suggestion by the new Prime Minister.
“Sweden’s leading epidemiologist said Wednesday the Nordic nation is starting to see a plateau in coronavirus cases despite the government’s decision to refrain from a countrywide lockdown,” says the latest report on the situation in Sweden where 80% of the population supports the no-lockdown approach.
Despite the latest announcement by Raab of yet more locked down nation, activity appears to be increasing in London with what used to be fully empty busses, now kind of half full.
Businesses moreover might start opening up by themselves despite the government’s directions, leading to a potential situation where these talking heads look completely detached from reality.
In London especially, which is two weeks ahead of the rest of the country, people might just start ignoring the TV completely with viewership of daily briefings significantly down.
It used to be these briefings would attract a million views or more. Now it is hardly 1,000 views with people in general kind of fed up with all this and so are starting to tune out.
That’s especially the case now that the new Prime Minister himself says transmission in the general public has fallen below one, meaning basically this is not spreading any more, probably because herd immunity has been achieved by now four months on.