Bitcoin has gone green today while all the rest is a bit red in what might suggest this is now the bitcoin show.
Up another $400 today to $9,600 makes all wonder can it take that big $10k and if it does, where is it headed.
We have not seen the above contrast in a very, very long time especially as even tether is very red.
Meaning people are selling their tokenized dollars to buy bitcoin, which is not having much effect on the USD strength index itself.
Many other fiat currencies are however in trouble, making this halvening a highly symbolic one for it couldn’t come at a better time to illustrate there’s a better way to organize and manage the measurer of value.
Last time bitcoin’s network usage was around these levels was during summer last year when bitcoin’s price reached $14,000.
That might mean bitcoin is a bit undervalued right now, but more exciting than price for some is to see how high this current 1.29 MB network usage as of today can reach in the segwited bitcoin network.
We want to see that big 2MB, eventually, hopefully, and then beyond, with analysis now quite a bit more complicated than in the simple days when we could just look at transaction numbers as a proxy of adoption.
That’s because for example devs have been having a discussion “on the scalability issues of onboarding millions of LN mobile clients.”
Millions, with LN currently having little usage as just $9 million worth of BTC are in there, but eventually we’d have to try and get some estimate of how many LN transactions are condensed in one on-chain transaction.
Then of course there’s bundling of transactions where you have a base 200 bytes on top of which you can add many transactions of 20 bytes each.
That’s inputs, what in non-utxo based blockchains, like in ethereum, they would just be called transactions.
It’s at near all time high, with it being higher at 880,000 inputs only in early January 2018 when bitcoin’s price was about $20,000.
That they’re at a similar level when in 2018 they were taking up only about 1MB of space, while now it’s at 1.29MB, suggests either that there’s some inefficient use or there’s just more users.
The latter can be the case because as stated above to condense transactions you need first that base 200 bytes and then you can add 20 bytes transactions on top. Meaning you need to be transacting with many.
If on the other hand you’re making just one transaction, say to buy some shipping container from China, then you’d be taking up 200 bytes without any condensing or bundling, leading to the appearance of inefficient usage but only because there isn’t an efficient way.
So making it a bit complicated to realistically estimate the current level of real network usage, but what very easily can be said is that it is rising.
That it does so in a way that kind of correlates with the level of economic activity in as far as more and more of Europe is opening up, suggests global trade is a factor presumably because bitcoin is being used globally for trade, as money, as peer to peer cash.
Then obviously there’s the speculative elements and all the rest, but this currency is more and more finding niches where it satisfies needs better than any other alternative.