Almost all bitcoiners have made money from their investment according to blockchain data analysis.
That’s if they didn’t sell in February 2019 when just 39% was in profit, or during the more recent lockdown crash in March when it dropped to 43%.
For all other holders, they’re now in green more than anytime since June last year when bitcoin very briefly reached $14,000.
The data above analyzes the price of bitcoin when they move from an address and compares it to the current price.
Hence this isn’t 90% of bitcoiners because you can’t easily tell change of ownership and therefore you can’t tell whether they are buying or selling at the time of movement or indeed whether they’re just sending it to an exchange or to a cold wallet after buying it months earlier.
That brings another complication in that bitcoins in a custodian’s cold wallet, like an exchange, don’t have to move for the beneficiary’s ownership to change because you can sell the exchange’s IOU or database bitcoins with the real ones given only when you exit the exchange, when you withdraw.
Meaning there is no way to know how many actual bitcoiners that held throughout the big and small shakes are in profit.
But, the above two charts are a proxy way of estimating to some reasonable degree how many may be in profit as the increase or decrease in the amount of bitcoins under custody for example may reveal change of ownership and thus may show overall just how many are probably in profit.
“Historically, levels of 90% and higher have clearly marked pronounced bull markets,” Glassnode, the data analytics company, says.
At the very peak, on December the 7th 2017, 99.90% was in profit, with it then giving way to a sell-off.
As obviously this is a moving percentage, just how long it would take to add that other 9% is not clear, with $20,000 being an obvious big price milestone as thereafter we enter unchartered territory.
Whether bitcoin will cross that line and if so when is unclear, but arguably we may have entered the stage of disbelief where price goes up, but no one thinks it will continue to go up, with bears or wall street doing their little scares now and then.