The Gross Domestic Production (GDP) data for the first quarter throughout much of the world, except Sweden, are bleak.
The estimates for the second quarter plunge are even bleaker. But now we have entered the third quarter, will it be bleaker still?
Six months on into this pandemic, the economy has hardly began moving. And instead of any bounce, it is beginning to feel like that red line just won’t stop falling down.
Tens of thousands can rub shoulder to shoulder in Trafalgar square or New York square, but you still can not have a hair cut in Britain.
Lockdown Boris Johnson, or now ‘riots on my lawn’ Donald Trump, keeps speaking about opening up but in London you still can’t go to a foto-booth to take a ‘dik pic’ and get the F out of tyranny.
We opening up and still everyone is pretty much forced to stay at home, with the media-government sreeching at the very idea of even easing, let alone full on liberty.
Unless of course you’re out there rioting and protesting, where suddenly there is no longer a pandemic, no warnings of upticks in grannies going their way, no word-batoons on everyone’s heads.
The slave workers have been cushioned and fully. Their 9-5 wage still fed to their lazy selfs. The entrepreneurs, the business owners, the self-employed, need a mountain of red tape to receive a njet non-handout, compounded by courts opening at the end of the month to evict the lot and burn their businesses down or their rented homes. Metaphorically in Europe, literally in much of America.
All the while, that lockdowns do not work is proven as much as anything can be proven. How can tiny Belgium have 4x the fatalities of the most populous country on earth, China, when both took the same measures?
China lied you can say but how is anyone to judge who is lying for if such vast government can lie to its own people and the world, on what bases should one not wonder if it is not our own government lying?
There will be an investigation now through the World Health Organization (WHO), with a fine investigative report by the Associated Press communicating certain very serious claims and allegations that raise fundamental questions which no country can ignore.
Yet there needs to be and probably there will be at least internally and in secret some proper enquiries within each nation and preferably public ones for the public to have any confidence in the continued forced economic paralysis of probably some 70% of economic and productive activity at least in the United Kingdom even at this ‘opening’ and mass protesting stage.
Just 20 people protesting against the lockdown were dragged by the British police a few weeks ago. Thousands breaching non-gathering rules however are not even warned.
These are important protests, plenty may say, but these protests are about freedom and we do not have the freedom to even have a haircut.
Hahaha, one can easily see them chuckling in their towers. Drunk in their newly grabbed power to order in contravention of all principles or constitutions.
And yet, the effects of their decisions and continued oppression of the people are lagging ones.
Europe and America was in full swing in the first quarter, but still GDP fell by at least five percent, a calamity in economic terms.
Europe and America went into total lockdown in the second quarter, but being service economies the effects were still not quite felt fully because there’s a lag.
People are paid a month or two months in arrears for example. Plans were laid already or contracts were signed already so you wait until the batch is finished. Also there are savings, and many, many other reasons why there is a lag.
Months on however those savings start drying up. What initially was a few weeks to get through, becomes an endless complete transformation requiring non-revenue generating expenses as well as a look to the future on how to sustain things.
Thus you cut production, meaning wealth, and others can’t afford anything so they have nothing to spend, lowering demand and thus further lowering production, killing the service industry which ultimately depends on serving production, and so you have what was not felt suddenly become riots.
We are told they are protesting because of the killing of this poor man, but he won’t be the first and won’t be the last to suffer at the hands of oppression.
Instead, six months of tyranny necessarily takes its toll, and now one does wonder how on earth can the continuation of this tyranny be justified?
When you lock up together people who maybe don’t like each other at all, what exactly do you expect after months of it but an outpouring of anger which gives no notice.
An outpouring of anger right now because it is right now that the economic pain is being felt to the bone. It is right now that people are pretty much desperate because all has been dried up.
They can of course express it through race narratives or left-right narratives, but those are just ‘tactics’ with the ‘systemic’ cause of their anger being their economic collapse.
It is difficult to comprehend the vanishing of maybe as much as 90% of value in complex and fragile and inter-related economic systems, but that is what has happened in a lagging way and that is why this quarter will be even more difficult than the previous two.
The economy has to open up and now and fully, or the consequences are unpredictable. Otherwise, they are very predictable.