Some 12,000 Chinese troops have moved into a disputed territory owned by India according to the Telegraph.
The tension follows a declaration by India that Ladakh, a region which was part of Kashmir, has now become part of the state of India.
A road giving better access to the region being built by India is nearing completion. China’s response so seemingly being annexing 60 square km of India in Ladakh.
Some suggest what’s happened before will happen again. There will be talks, a truce, and then troops will pull back. Yet the only thing predictable in the devil’s game is that eventually it leads to war.
A cold one, with hotspots? Or will the grandpas of the last century come to their senses?
That’s for time to say. For the present, rumors China might sell off US treasuries led to a seven percent plunge in the Dow Jones yesterday.
You can just about see above a continuous gradual selling of US treasuries by the Chinese government, with Japan now overtaking them as the biggest holder.
That mini-panic took bitcoin down with it, falling by about $1,000 yesterday. Today it has recovered some $500, continuing within its sideways range as pictured above.
CNY keeps falling in value even as China tries to prop it up by selling bonds for yuan, with it gaining a bit recently but just what the Chinese plan where the yuan is concerned, is not clear.
Their stock market has had an abysmal performance for a fast growing economy until recently.
Their stocks have been pretty much sidewaying for four years, indicating perhaps they may have well learned a lot from the west, but clearly they haven’t learned quite a lot of things.
They haven’t learned for example that bitcoin and ethereum are a cool way to save for the young, and to learn the financial system. To say nothing of the tech aspects in regards to coding skills.
Even after their shambolic handling of the health crisis, they seemingly haven’t learned that tolerating and perhaps even encouraging freedom of expression leads to far quicker responses and handlings of situations.
Instead taking advantage of being first in, and thus first out somehow with far less cases than even tiny Belgium, they’re now jeopardizing the ‘bridge’ of Hong Kong.
Something which as far as bitcoin is concerned would leave it as a very attractive option for international commerce with and from China despite their attempts to try and stifle the crypto.
Hence which way China plans to move is relevant to this space and has been since 2013 with, geopolitically, their only way being the Mongolian empire if they are really wanting to become expansionists.
By the sea, they hardly have a navy and perhaps can’t to the superiority of Japan, the island.
Air superiority is the name of the game nowadays however, and there America remains quite unchallenged.
By land, they share significant cultures all the way to Moscow, up from Kashmir in a somewhat straight diagonal line.
They are generally poor regions however, although resource rich, with China being in a somewhat difficult spot in regards to transitioning to a higher-middle income economy.
Obviously some parts of China are very rich, but much of it – if not the vast majority – is very poor. To move away from that with the aim of creating an environment where prosperous jobs are available in general, would be not just difficult but perhaps impossible for China if it does not do much to significantly restore good relations with almost pretty much all its neighbours.
China of course tried to be self sustainable in their poverties of the 70s and that ‘mongolian’ line all the way to Moscow can also be described as the ‘native’ communist land.
They failed not just because of communism, but also because they were limited in trade and knowledge sharing. Also because Russia is only part mongolian. Eventually the two have a spat and isolate themselves even from each other.
In contrast cultured Europe and advanced America are too similar to really argue, even though they may have a spat now and then like even brothers do.
So to the west, if they want to isolate themselves it probably wouldn’t matter much, but to the Russian people and the Chinese people it would matter as they would probably become far poorer within a generation.
China is what it is because it was or at least was perceived to be an opened economy. China was what it was in the 70s and before because it was not opened to the west.
So their choice is either to continue being a protectionist very high command economy, which will probably attract reciprocal protectionist measures, or they can liberate their economy to facilitate trade.
This is of course not something new. It has been a debate within China since at least 2016. It is also their choice, with it so far seemingly being the former.
Which is unfortunate as we were having a great time in China, as were the Chinese people, until they kicked us out and started becoming more and more protectionist to the point they banned French cheese.
But, that’s the devil’s game. Stupidity in plain sight, to the knowledge of all, and to the benefit or gain of no one.
That of course being the Chinese government not the people. The Chinese people want the same things we all do. The Chinese young have the same dreams and aims we all do, at least the smarter ones.
And though it is easy to caricature the Chinese government, or any government, they too are people within a complex system that has plenty of debate and disagreement especially on this question of whether to liberate their economy or face reciprocal protectionist responses to primarily their detrement.
For America is America. Whatever fault and arrogance and sometime plain stupidity. Those are mainly of the government, which sometime it does matter but not too much due to their private enterprise and due to the significant checks on the government.
When the Indian central bank for example tried to restrict bitcoin, the supreme court there said no. While in China they just kicked us out without even a warning and with the Chinese people being unable to do anything about it.
That makes the country a somewhat dicy economic environment especially if you have long term plans. Which is why America has entered negotiations. Not for fun, but if we are to trade, we trade. We don’t just buidl all the things for the government to suddenly take them or shut them off without a very good reason as ultimately determined by an independent court.