It’s the last Friday of the month, a time when the old financial system and the new flash boys stare at each other more intensely than bulls or bears.
Futures are to expire, with Wednesday in particular at around 4PM or 9PM London time liked by certain manipulators who need to move the price on only the most illiquid exchange, say Gemini, to make money on their printed million dollar bets on futures.
The concept is simple and it can work both ways. You buy say 1,000 bitcoins preferably slowly without moving the price, then you short on futures, then you market sell before 4PM London time on Friday.
Or you long futures, then you market buy, with this working only if others have not caught on to it.
After we started sounding like a broken tape however, repeating the same article word per word for about seven months, there hasn’t been as much overt spot movement of price before futures expiry.
The reason is probably because if the market caches on to the manipulation, you can have other actors that can make you lose a lot of money.
Say for example your plan was to market sell and short. As soon as you market sell your 1,000 bitcoins, Jo whale can market buy 10k after longing on futures.
That can descend into a whale war with the question then being who would win: the limitless fiat money bankers or the 21 million flashboys?
The answer depends on who has more of those coins as the fiat here would be irrelevant if the aim is to make the price fall.
That’s because price is set on spot exchanges so you need to have bitcoins to sell them. As these coins are generally in the hands of bitcoiners, you’d think at some point Wall Street would give up and long.
Bitcoin has never hanged out at this level for months now. On its way down in 2018, it did not even stop at 10,000. On its second way down in 2019 after reaching $14,000, it stopped for only a week.
On its way up it did stop for about 4 days, with this being a strong support level on its way down, but a bouncy level rather than a parking spot.
As it was strong support it is clearly now very strong resistance as this is basically where it is decided whether bears are kicked out of town.
They’ve formed formidable barricades as clearly can be seen, but bulls have been chipp chipping, with it unclear whether a bull charge is needed or a roman walled advance.
What is clear however is that hope has returned and even optimism, with the market probably thinking this can’t really go down and if it does it would be brief.
Obviously price can do whatever it wants, but you’d think Fed printing trillions in ten seconds would have some effect regardless of any potential brief shenanigans by Wall Street or anyone else.