Stocks are expected to open in the green today with futures pointing to fresh records as bitcoin jumps to $45,000 while eth re-takes $1,700 on Tesla buying $1.5 billion of digital gold.
Some of this general green may well be due to Janet Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, who took the microphone to say:
“There’s absolutely no reason why we should suffer through a long slow recovery. I would expect that if this package is passed that we would get back to full employment next year.”
The House of Representatives passed the $1.9 trillion budget outline, after the Senate approved it in a pre-dawn vote with president Joe Biden potentially pushing it through even without Republicans.
“There is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation,” Democrat Lawrence Summers said.
Yellen said they have the tools to deal with inflation if that materializes, not least because interest rates currently are at pretty much zero with deflation the worry.
$1,400 checks are expected to go out to even those that earn $60,000, with the timeline being for mid March.
That’s slower than some expected, but if the stimulus is approved the GDP may grow this year by as much as 8%.
That’s especially as the vaccination of the elderly in UK seems to be working with talk there once more of opening up even while the isles are in mid winter.
Schools may return next month, at which point it is pretty much back to normality, but for a lot of people there may not be jobs to get back to, hence all agree in US that some stimulus is necessary.
In Europe there isn’t talk of it yet but finally Italy is getting a competent leader with all eyes on Mario Draghi.
Expectations couldn’t be higher nor the challenges for Super Mario who plenty hope might straighten up Europe’s third biggest economy.
Starting with a stimulus perhaps, as otherwise the euro might get too strong while the southern economy is pretty much devastated.
The flip side to that is all of this is debt, but pretty much unpayable debt except through devaluation.
So a lot of these stimulus checks might go to bitcoin or eth, with the $1,200 given last year now worth $6,000 in bitcoin and some $11,000 in eth.