Ethereum’s ratio has fallen overnight mainly during Shanghai and Frankfurt morning time, with it down from a brief 0.035 to now below 0.031 bitcoins.
For the past few days eth was gaining on bitcoin while both were rising against the dollar with most of the gains during Shanghai and Frankfurt time.
During midnight (London time) however eth’s ratio saw a correction, with it once again testing big support at these 0.031 levels as can be seen above.
That means eth has been static against bitcoin since summer, but in what looks like an upwards trajectory since 2019:
What’s missing above is the bear years when the ratio went down and down, but it finally found support in a year long sideways.
Then the above chart picks up as we see the beginning of an upwards trend in September 2019, with the ratio seemingly sidewaying here for the past three weeks after falling from 0.046 early last month.
Prior to yesterday a nice narrative was forming for eth in the halvening EIP1559, the defi and NFT booms, as well as the half a trillion bitcoin stimulus.
Thus the ratio bullishness led some to think a new eth show was upon us, but there can’t be a show without clowns so yesterday Shanghai had fun.
The dollar has turned down again against CNY, and thus Shanghai has responded with Frankfurt then following because the dollar has lost some ground to the euro as well.
This being reflected in bitcoin would be quite amazing as it tells of a very new level for the currency, so it may just be an utter and complete coincidence, but we may also be back to the prior-to-the-correction time when America was bullish while Shanghai was not.
America being a far bigger economy and a free one, that could be good, but no one can predict the future so going back to eth on the narrative front, EIP1559 is the biggest news its had since forever. So it should bounce off support and get a bit of bullishness because there will be a huge reduction in supply and thus sell pressure from miners.
Despite some loudmmouthed miners, it looks pretty much certain this will go through and probably without a hitch at a technical level, so that eth ratio bull run since September maybe will continue.
That depends on how long this sideway lasts and whether it will bounce off it. If it does, then a re-test of 0.046 may be on the cards, with bitcoin maxis probably out of their shorts now as the smarter of them have probably made enough gains and the support has held for weeks with this defi-nft-eip trio coming to its aid in addition.
Meaning maybe it’s spring again, but whether it translates to a spring move in crypto, remains to be seen.