A volatility indicator called Bollinger Bands, or bbands for short, has significantly tightened recently, suggesting a sharp move is to be expected.
Bollinger Bands are a type of price envelope developed by John Bollinger who now and then tweets about bitcoin.
They also suggest that after a period of low volatility, high volatility follows, and vice versa.
Bitcoin currently has been consolidating for the past six weeks, with its price range narrowing.
In mid February it went from $58,500 to $43,000, with it shooting up to $62,000 followed by $50,500.
It more recently reached just about $60,000, to then stop at $56,500 with it currently trading at $58,000.
This is making $60,000 one of the biggest resistance that bitcoin has ever seen, with some suggesting this strong resistance is typical at 3x above its previous all time high.
The narrowing range indicates there will be a breakout at some point, with the bear army so potentially defeated in a Pyrrhic way through attrition.
The first time it hit such resistance on the 21st of February 2021, the then strong bear army sold it down by some 35%.
The second time on or around 14th of March, they still had ammo for chasing off bulls down by about 15%.
The third time more recently is maybe a bit early to say, but they lowered it by just 5%.
That could potentially indicate that the sell reservers are being depleted, with less and less people willing to sell at this price point the more it’s reached.
At some point thus the bears capitulate, and so the bulls go on a run to… well no one knows but $65k, $70k, and on the upper end maybe a $10k candle to $80k before little bears show up again.
Of course predicting price is no easy thing as bitcoin will do whatever it wants, but the feeling in the air seems to be a potential bear capitulation.
If this plays out like the bear market but in reverse, arguably this would be their first capitulation with a second big one to come in due time and then their sweet despair when bulls are in delusional euphoria.
But in the mean time bears are in the angry stage and probably still feel dominant so they’ve been hitting the bulls that have been charging at their $60,000 barricades.
Alas, it’s not clear now whether there’s any more bears left to man the barricades with more and more of them presumably retreating to the $80,000 shelter.
Or not, as only time can tell.