Bitcoin has risen above $50,000 once again, jumping by nearly 10% from under $47,000 to now just above $50,000.
The currency has been kind of sidewaying at that $50,000 level for the past four hours, with it to be seen whether it will clearly take it and head off, or face resistance again as last week.
Eth seems to be partially the cause of bitcoin’s rise this time. The diamond coin has been rising with some speed, gaining on the ratio considerably from 0.066 BTC just two days ago to a recent high of 0.078.
It has fallen a bit to 0.075 bitcoins as the latter took off in part because Wall Street seems to be regaining interest in bitcoin.
We can see open interest was declining until August when it starts to increase with the turbulences in Afghanistan potentially one reason for that change in sentiment.
The country was left without money and queues formed in front of closed banks in Kabul as the crossroads nation goes through a transition which is in some ways shuffling the cards.
Russia for its part is probably a bit worried. The whole caucus region that includes Chechnya but also other ‘states,’ wants to break away in part due to lack of investment in an area where Moscow looks a world away.
Russia’s foreign minister drew attention to some resistance in the Panjshir Valley in Afghanistan, but the tali seemingly were able to quickly bring that under control, calling it a “shadow” of what used to be the Northern Alliance 20 years ago.
So it may well be not Russia nor China that is a player here, but the little tiny rich emirate of Qatar which practically is being seen as the ‘boss’ of these talis.
Al Thani, an ancient name that gets to ring again is now, whether they like it or not, courting the eyes of the world, or at least independent millenials.
As such we’d expect the talis to at least appear to be moderate, because it is not necessarily they which will court judgment.
This little unfolding in a far away country can also potentially translate into a global re-alignment itself as Europe more and more talks of strategic independence.
Oil independent USA no longer has an interest in Europe’s neighborhood, but Europe does and not just in trade, but also in stability.
America’s pivot to the pacific therefore may well force the rise of Europe which may well have far better relations not least because arabia is deep in debt to Germany after grandma Merkel opened the door to welcome a million of them when in need.
Germany is going through an election which may well bring the left to power in a coalition with the greens, something that could potentially accelerate European integration.
How all this will affect America is to be seen, but the dollar index has been weakening as its chaotic exit takes a hit:
The rise of bitcoin above $50,000 coincided with New York waking up. So this dollar weakness and bitcoin’s price may be related.
There’s probably bitcoin specific factors as well however whereby the boom in NFTs and other cryptos like ADA eventually feeds into BTC as speculators move around.
The big question so being whether all that is sufficient for bitcoin to clear off this resistance line, something that remains to be seen.