$2 billion worth of bitcoin longs have been liquidated just on Bitmex according to Datamish, an analytics startup.
That follows a more than 20% fall in bitcoin’s price since mid-November with it diving on Friday in particular by about 10%.
Just $70,000 in shorts has been liquidated during the same time while Bitfinex data, pictured above, shows shorts are up by close to 10x since November, from about 400 btc, and by more than 3x since Monday, November 22nd, from 900 bitcoins to above 3,300 BTC.
Longs in contrast dived from 45,000 at the end of September, to 27,000 in mid October.
Since the 17th of November, longs are up however from 28,000 to 34,000 bitcoins.
Eth data shows something else. A huge drop of 400,000 eth on November 11th, worth $1.6 billion.
At the same time, eth shorts have been rising from 160,000 eth to 230,000 eth, the latter worth close to $1 billion.
Eth shorts thus currently are more than 2x above eth longs with a lot of potential interpretations here. The most benign being they just got liquidated, but price hardly moved on November 11th.
There was no proper price movement until November 16th, five days later. So liquidation is out of the question unless the data is lagging by about five days which we suspect, but such lag would be backwards not forwards.
The longs moreover were gradually opened since July, so it’s reasonable to say these longs were closed.
On the 7th of November we reported ethereum eyes $5,000. Bears may have taken that as some local top signal. They start whispering, almost in concert, with a flip switched on the dailies of bitcoin and eth.
The two whales either fool the public or fool themselves as instinct says $5,000 big resistance. The Bitfinex whale gets out.
Bears start marching as bulls retreat. The orchestra plays in concert. ‘No more money to buy the dip,’ endless ‘jokes’ even though there wouldn’t be a dip if they didn’t fiat and keep sitting on tons of cash.
And then just what they had been waiting for. The long ignored flue becomes the dominant bear narrative. It crashed in March 2020 so it will again, but in March we didn’t know we had printers, and once we found out, it mooned. Now we know.
And here is where we may get a bear trap: “The new Omicron variant of the Coronavirus results in MILD disease, WITHOUT prominent symptoms.” – Angelique Coetzee, the chairwoman of the South African Medical Association.
First of all let’s stop here to appreciate how everyone followed WHOs orders to skip two letters just because Nu doesn’t sound scary enough and Xi is obviously a bit, and let’s also ask why they scapegoating the Greek alphabet? Why not the latin one, or some ancient Egyptian alphabet. Call it archana instead of scapegoating our Pi, which has a long, ancient, and beautiful history.
Second, as one might expect this Nu flue is also becoming the common flue. Shows up during winter when it’s cold, takes the very elderly when they kind of want to go anyway at 97, and becomes milder.
Some are even cheering for this Nu to overtake other variants as it appears to be less harmful. The bear narrative thus perhaps destroyed.
They’ll say we need two weeks for certainty, but this was discovered as it happens on November 11th. They’ve had two weeks, it’s just information tends to travel slowly even in our times.
Did this Bitfinex whale know something? That may sound far fetched but this paper went briefly kind of mainstream in South Africa in 2017 after reporting on bitcoin and crypto volumes that had South African money (ZAR) involvement.
That’s just one example to illustrate that South Africa does bitcoin, and Africa does bitcoin. So, we can’t dismiss out of hand the coincidence, but there’s no further evidence of insider trading.
However, it makes sense to conclude with limited information that some people did know, and the rest perhaps didn’t know what exactly, but got a hint from the market actions of those that might have known.
Thus while before this analysis we thought bears just wanted to bear and so tried their luck, it may be instead they had a reason to bear.
Either way however it might turn out to be a bear trap in the end because the Nu flue may even turn out to be good news as it seems to be both faster and milder, meaning it will probably both dominate and become more common flue.
So we turn back to our original hypothesis. Big resistance, the market had to try lower to see what bears can do, now… it’s for time to say but clearly the show goes on.